Abstract: • First model inter-comparison on crop rotations. • Continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yields outperformed single-year simulation. • Low accuracy of yield predictions in less commonly modelled crops such as potato, radish, grass vegetation. • Multi-model mean prediction was found to minimise the likely error arising from single-model predictions. • The representation of intermediate crops and carry-over effects in the models require further research efforts.
Diversification of crop rotations is considered an option to increase the resilience of European crop production under climate change. So far, however, many crop simulation studies have focused on predicting single crops in separate one-year simulations. Here, we compared the capability of fifteen crop growth simulation models to predict yields in crop rotations at five sites across Europe under minimal calibration. Crop rotations encompassed 301 seasons of ten crop types common to European agriculture and a diverse set of treatments (irrigation, fertilisation, CO2 concentration, soil types, tillage, residues, intermediate or catch crops). We found that the continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yielded results of slightly higher quality compared to the simulation of single years and single crops. Intermediate crops (oilseed radish and grass vegetation) were simulated less accurately than main crops (cereals). The majority of models performed better for the treatments of increased CO2 and nitrogen fertilisation than for irrigation and soil-related treatments. The yield simulation of the multi-model ensemble reduced the error compared to single-model simulations. The low degree of superiority of continuous simulations over single year simulation was caused by (a) insufficiently parameterised crops, which affect the performance of the following crop, and (b) the lack of growth-limiting water and/or nitrogen in the crop rotations under investigation. In order to achieve a sound representation of crop rotations, further research is required to synthesise existing knowledge of the physiology of intermediate crops and of carry-over effects from the preceding to the following crop, and to implement/improve the modelling of processes that condition these effects.

Abstract: A field experiment was conducted in Mediterranean conditions to evaluate the effects of different irrigation volumes and water quality on yield performance of tomato crop. The tomato crop was irrigated reestablishing 50 (I1), 75 (I2) and 100% (I3) of the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) with two water quality: fresh water with EC 0.9 dS m-1 (FW) and saline water with EC 6 dSm-1 (SW). At harvest, total and marketable yield, weight, number, total soluble solids (TSS) and dry matter of fruit were calculated, The results showed no statistical differences among the three different irrigation volumes on tomato yield and quality. The salinity treatment did not affect yield, probably because the soil salinity in the root zone on average remained below the threshold of tomato salt tolerance. Instead, salinity improved fruit quality parameters as dry matter and TSS by 13 and 8%, respectively. After the first field application of saline water, soil saturated extract cations (SSEC), electrical conductivity of soil paste extract (ECe), sodium absorption ratio (SAR) and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) cations increased; the largest increase of cations, in particular of Na, occurred in the top layer. At the end of the experiment, the absolute value of SSEC, ECe and SAR, for all the effects studied, were lower than those recorded in 2007. This behavior was suitable to the reduced volumes of treatments administered in 2009 in respect to the 2007. Furthermore, the higher total rainfall recorded in 2009 increased the leaching and downward movement of salts out of the sampling depth.

Abstract: Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers’ fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity “deserts” were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.