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	Author	Zhen, L.; Deng, X.; Wei, Y.; Jiang, Q.; Lin, Y.; Helming, K.; Wang, C.; König, H.J.; Hu, J.
	Title	Future land use and food security scenarios for the Guyuan district of remote western China			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	iForest	Abbreviated Journal	iForest
	Volume	7	Issue	6	Pages	372-384
	Keywords	land-use patterns; scenario analysis; dynamics of land systems modeling; food security; guyuan district; north-central china; cultivated land; dynamics; conversion; policy
	Abstract	Government policy is a major human factor that causes changes in land use. Decisions on land management and land-use planning, as well as the analysis and quantification of policy consequences, may greatly benefit from the simulation of the dynamics of land-use systems. In the present study, we predicted land-use changes and their potential impacts on food security in the environmentally fragile Guyuan District, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (north-central China), under the influence of a program to convert sloping agricultural land to conservation uses. Baseline and conservation policy scenarios (2005 to 2020) were developed based on input from local stakeholders and expert knowledge. For the baseline and conservation policies, we formulated high-, moderate-, and low-growth scenarios, analyzed the driving mechanisms responsible for the land-use dynamics, and then applied a previously developed “dynamics of land systems” model to simulate changes in land uses based on the driving mechanisms. We found that spatially explicit policies can promote the conversion of land to more sustainable uses; however, decreasing the amount of agricultural and urban land and increasing grassland and forest cover will increase the risk of grain shortages, and the effect will be more severe under the conservation and high- growth scenarios than under the baseline and low-growth scenarios. The Guyuan case study suggests that, during the next decade, important trade-offs between environmental conservation and food security will inevitably occur. Future land-use decisions should carefully consider the balance between land resource conservation, agricultural production, and urban expansion.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	1971-7458	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4547
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	Author	Rolinski, S.; Heinke, J.; Weindl, I.
	Title	Grazing effects on grassland productivity – Linking livestock production to grass yields			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	LiveM
	Abstract
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language		Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium
	Area		Expedition		Conference	Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2752
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	Author	Rolinski, S.; Heinke, J.; I., W.
	Title	Modelling the effects of grassland management on the carbon cycle			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	LiveM
	Abstract
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language		Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium
	Area		Expedition		Conference	European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2014, 2014-04-28 to 2014-05-02
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2753
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	Author	Saetnan, E.; Kipling, P.; Scollan, D.; Bartley, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Hutchings, J.; Dalgaard, T.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.
	Title	MACSUR LiveM – a knowledge-hub for integrated modelling of climate change impacts on livestock production systems: lessons learned and future developments			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	LiveM
	Abstract
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language		Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium
	Area		Expedition		Conference	Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2781
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	Author	Sándor, R.; Ma, S.; Acutis, M.; Barcza, Z.; Ben, T., H.; Doro, L.; Hidy, D.; Köchy, M.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Minet, J.; Perego, A.; Rolinski, S.; Ruget, F.; Seddaiu, G.; Wu, L.; Bellocchi, G.
	Title	Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon-water fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands under climate changes			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	LiveM
	Abstract
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language		Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium
	Area		Expedition		Conference	International Livestock Modelling and Research Colloquium, Bilbao, Spain, 2014-10-14 to 2014-10-16
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2788
Permanent link to this record