Abstract: MACSUR — Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security — is a  knowledge hub that was formally created in June 2012 as a European scientific network.  The strategic aim of the knowledge hub is to create a coordinated and globally visible  network of European researchers and research groups, with intra- and interdisciplinary  interaction and shared expertise creating synergies for the development of scientific  resources (data, models, methods) to model the impacts of climate change on agriculture  and related issues. This objective encompasses a wide range of political and sociological  aspects, as well as the technical development of modelling capacity through impact  assessments at different scales and assessing uncertainties in model outcomes. We achieve  this through model intercomparisons and model improvements, harmonization and  exchange of data sets, training in the selection and use of models, assessment of benefits  of ensemble modelling, and cross-disciplinary linkages of models and tools. The project  engages with a diverse range of stakeholder groups and to support the development of  resources for capacity building of individuals and countries. Commensurate with this broad  challenge, a network of currently 300 scientists (measured by the number of individuals on  the central e-mail list) from 18 countries evolved from the original set of research groups  selected by FACCE.   In the spirit of creating and maintaining a network for intra- and interdisciplinary  knowledge exchange, network activities focused on meetings of researchers for sharing  expertise and, depending on group resources (both financial and personnel), development  of collaborative research activities. The outcome of these activities is the enhanced  knowledge of the individual researchers within the network, contributions to conference  presentations and scholarly papers, input to stakeholders and the general public, organised  courses for students, junior and senior scientists. The most visible outcome are the  scientific results of the network activities, represented in the contributions of MACSUR  members to the impressive number of more than 200 collaborative papers in peer-reviewed  publications.   Here, we present a selection of overview and cross-disciplinary papers which include  contributions from MACSUR members. It highlights the major scientific challenges  addressed, and the methodological solutions and insights obtained. Over and above these  highlights, major achievements have been reached regarding data collection, data  processing, evaluation, model testing, modelling assessments of the effects of agriculture  on ecosystem services, policy, and development of scenarios. Details on these  achievements in the context of MACSUR can be found in our online publication FACCE  MACSUR Reports at http://ojs.macsur.eu.

Abstract: Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural and rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for multiple indicators. In a case study area in the Netherlands, a bio-economic farm model, an agent-based land-use change model, and a regional emission model have been used to simulate rural development under two plausible global change scenarios at both farm and landscape level. Results show that in this area, climate change will have mainly negative economic impacts (dairy gross margin, arable gross margin, economic efficiency, milk production) in the warmer and drier W+ scenario, while impacts are slightly positive in the G scenario with moderate climate change. Dairy farmers are worse off than arable farmers in both scenarios. Conversely, when the W+ scenario is embedded in the socio-economic Global Economy (GE) scenario, changes in technology, prices, and policy are projected to have a positive economic impact, more than offsetting the negative climate impacts. Important is, however, that environmental impacts (global warming, terrestrial and aquatic eutrophication) are largely negative and social impacts (farm size, number of farms, nature area, odour) are mixed. In the G scenario combined with the socio-economic Regional Communities (RC) scenario the average dairy gross margin in particular is negatively affected. Social impacts are similarly mixed as in the GE scenario, while environmental impacts are less severe. Our results suggest that integrated assessments at farm and landscape level can be used to guide decision-makers in spatial planning policies and climate change adaptation. As there will always be trade-offs between economic, social, and environmental impacts stakeholders need to interact and decide upon most important directions for policies. This implies a choice between production and income on the one hand and social and environmental services on the other hand