Records |
Author |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
Volume |
45 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
1 |
Pages |
37-50 |
Keywords |
climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
Abstract |
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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ISSN |
0169-5150 |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4533 |
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Author |
Graef, F.; Sieber, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Asch, F.; Biesalski, H.K.; Bitegeko, J.; Bokelmann, W.; Bruentrup, M.; Dietrich, O.; Elly, N.; Fasse, A.; Germer, J.U.; Grote, U.; Herrmann, L.; Herrmann, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Kahimba, F.C.; Kaufmann, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kilembe, C.; Kimaro, A.; Kinabo, J.; König, B.; König, H.; Lana, M.; Levy, C.; Lyimo-Macha, J.; Makoko, B.; Mazoko, G.; Mbaga, S.H.; Mbogoro, W.; Milling, H.; Mtambo, K.; Mueller, J.; Mueller, C.; Mueller, K.; Nkonja, E.; Reif, C.; Ringler, C.; Ruvuga, S.; Schaefer, M.; Sikira, A.; Silayo, V.; Stahr, K.; Swai, E.; Tumbo, S.; Uckert, G. |
Title |
Framework for participatory food security research in rural food value chains |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Food Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Food Security |
Volume |
3 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
1 |
Pages |
8-15 |
Keywords |
food security; food value chain; action research; tanzania; research framework |
Abstract |
Enhancing food security for poor and vulnerable people requires adapting rural food systems to various driving factors. Food security-related research should apply participatory action research that considers the entire food value chain to ensure sustained success. This article presents a research framework that focusses on determining, prioritising, testing, adapting and disseminating food securing upgrading strategies across the multiple components of rural food value chains. These include natural resources, Food production, processing, markets, consumption and waste management. Scientists and policy makers jointly use tools developed for assessing potentials for enhancing regional food security at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The research is being conducted in Tanzania as a case study for Sub-Saharan countries and is done in close collaboration with local, regional and national stakeholders, encompassing all activities across all different food sectors. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
2211-9124 |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4523 |
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Author |
Müller, C. |
Title |
African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Annual Review of Nutrition |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ann. Rev. Nutr. |
Volume |
33 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
1 |
Pages |
395-411 |
Keywords |
Africa/epidemiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*growth & development; Diet/adverse effects/economics; Forecasting; *Global Health/economics/trends; Humans; Malnutrition/economics/epidemiology/prevention & control; *Models, Theoretical; Risk; Soil/chemistry; Water Resources/economics |
Abstract |
Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited. |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0199-9885 1545-4312 |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4496 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Below, T.B.; Mutabazi, K.D.; Kirschke, D.; Franke, C.; Sieber, S.; Siebert, R.; Tscherning, K. |
Title |
Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
Volume |
22 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
1 |
Pages |
223-235 |
Keywords |
Sub-Saharan Africa; Tanzania; Adaptive capacity; Index; Vulnerability; Adaptation; adaptive capacity; environmental-change; south-africa; vulnerability; variability; resilience; tanzania; framework; drought; policy |
Abstract |
A better understanding of processes that shape farmers’ adaptation to climate change is critical to identify vulnerable entities and to develop well-targeted adaptation policies. However, it is currently poorly understood what determines farmers’ adaptation and how to measure it. In this study, we develop an activity-based adaptation index (AAI) and explore the relationship between socioeconomic variables and farmers’ adaptation behavior by means of an explanatory factor analysis and a multiple linear regression model using latent variables. The model was tested in six villages situated in two administrative wards in the Morogoro region of Tanzania. The Mlali ward represents a system of relatively high agricultural potential, whereas the Gairo ward represents a system of low agricultural potential. A household survey, a rapid rural appraisal and, a stakeholder workshop were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. We found that public investment in rural infrastructure, in the availability and technically efficient use of inputs, in a good education system that provides equal chances for women, and in the strengthening of social capital, agricultural extension and, microcredit services are the best means of improving the adaptation of the farmers from the six villages in Gairo and Mlali. We conclude that the newly developed AAI is a simple but promising way to capture the complexity of adaptation processes that addresses a number of shortcomings of previous index studies. |
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ISSN |
0959-3780 |
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Notes |
TradeM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4467 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Stevanović, M.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Humpenöder, F.; Müller, C.; Weindl, I.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Kreidenweis, U.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Wang, X. |
Title |
Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Technology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science and Technology |
Volume |
51 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
1 |
Pages |
365-374 |
Keywords |
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Abstract |
The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread. |
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ISSN |
0013-936x |
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Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5007 |
Permanent link to this record |