Records |
Author |
Reidsma, P.; Bakker, M.M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Alam, S.J.; Paas, W.; Kros, J.; de Vries, W. |
Title |
Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
Volume |
141 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Pages |
160-173 |
Keywords |
Integrated assessment; Global change; Sustainability; Agriculture; Farm; structural change; Spatially explicit; Climate smart agriculture; affecting land-use; integrated assessment; multiobjective optimization; analytical framework; trade-offs; systems; uncertainties; policies; future; adaptation |
Abstract |
Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural and rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for multiple indicators. In a case study area in the Netherlands, a bio-economic farm model, an agent-based land-use change model, and a regional emission model have been used to simulate rural development under two plausible global change scenarios at both farm and landscape level. Results show that in this area, climate change will have mainly negative economic impacts (dairy gross margin, arable gross margin, economic efficiency, milk production) in the warmer and drier W+ scenario, while impacts are slightly positive in the G scenario with moderate climate change. Dairy farmers are worse off than arable farmers in both scenarios. Conversely, when the W+ scenario is embedded in the socio-economic Global Economy (GE) scenario, changes in technology, prices, and policy are projected to have a positive economic impact, more than offsetting the negative climate impacts. Important is, however, that environmental impacts (global warming, terrestrial and aquatic eutrophication) are largely negative and social impacts (farm size, number of farms, nature area, odour) are mixed. In the G scenario combined with the socio-economic Regional Communities (RC) scenario the average dairy gross margin in particular is negatively affected. Social impacts are similarly mixed as in the GE scenario, while environmental impacts are less severe. Our results suggest that integrated assessments at farm and landscape level can be used to guide decision-makers in spatial planning policies and climate change adaptation. As there will always be trade-offs between economic, social, and environmental impacts stakeholders need to interact and decide upon most important directions for policies. This implies a choice between production and income on the one hand and social and environmental services on the other hand |
Address |
2016-06-01 |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0308-521x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4742 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Conradt, T.; Koch, H.; Hattermann, F.F.; Wechsung, F.; Hartje, V.; Kaden, S.; Venohr, M.; Hansjürgens, B.; Gräfe, P. |
Title |
Validierung von Lokalkorrekturen der Verdunstung bei den Simulationen des Wasserabflusses |
Type |
Book Chapter |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
Volume |
|
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Pages |
211-231 |
Keywords |
CropM |
Abstract |
|
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
Weißensee Verl. |
Place of Publication |
Berlin |
Editor |
Wechsung, F.; Hartje, V.; Kaden, S.; Venohr, M.; Hansjürgens, B.; Gräfe, P. |
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
Die Elbe im globalen Wandel |
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2367 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Balkovič, J.; van der Velde, M.; Schmid, E.; Skalský, R.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.; Stürmer, B.; Xiong, W. |
Title |
Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
Volume |
120 |
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Pages |
61-75 |
Keywords |
EPIC; large-scale crop modelling; model performance testing; EU; climate-change; high-resolution; organic-carbon; growth-model; wheat yield; water; calibration; impacts; productivity; simulations |
Abstract |
Justifiable usage of large-scale crop model simulations requires transparent, comprehensive and spatially extensive evaluations of their performance and associated accuracy. Simulated crop yields of a Pan-European implementation of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model were satisfactorily evaluated with reported regional yield data from EUROSTAT for four major crops, including winter wheat, rainfed and irrigated maize, spring barley and winter rye. European-wide land use, elevation, soil and daily meteorological gridded data were integrated in GIS and coupled with EPIC. Default EPIC crop and biophysical process parameter values were used with some minor adjustments according to suggestions from scientific literature. The model performance was improved by spatial calculations of crop sowing densities, potential heat units, operation schedules, and nutrient application rates. EPIC performed reasonable in the simulation of regional crop yields, with long-term averages predicted better than inter-annual variability: linear regression R-2 ranged from 0.58 (maize) to 0.91 (spring barley) and relative estimation errors were between +/- 30% for most of the European regions. The modelled and reported crop yields demonstrated similar responses to driving meteorological variables. However, EPIC performed better in dry compared to wet years. A yield sensitivity analysis of crop nutrient and irrigation management factors and cultivar specific characteristics for contrasting regions in Europe revealed a range in model response and attainable yields. We also show that modelled crop yield is strongly dependent on the chosen PET method. The simulated crop yield variability was lower compared to reported crop yields. This assessment should contribute to the availability of harmonised and transparently evaluated agricultural modelling tools in the EU as well as the establishment of modelling benchmarks as a requirement for sound and ongoing policy evaluations in the agricultural and environmental domains. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Address |
2016-06-01 |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0308-521x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4737 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Challinor, A.E.A. |
Title |
How have uncertainties in projected yields changed between AR4 and AR5 |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
Volume |
|
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Pages |
|
Keywords |
CropM |
Abstract |
|
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2359 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Cezary, S.; Jaromir, K. |
Title |
Institute of Agrophysics PAS and MACSUR presentation |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
Volume |
|
Issue ![sorted by Issue field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Pages |
|
Keywords |
CropM |
Abstract |
|
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
Rola lasu w pochlanianiu dwutlenku wegla z atmosfery, Tlen, Poland, 2014-10-22 to 2014-10-24 |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2358 |
Permanent link to this record |