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Gutierrez, L.; Piras, F.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Title |
A global vector autoregression model for the analysis of wheat export prices |
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Year |
2015 |
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American Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
American Journal of Agricultural Economics |
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Volume |
97 |
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5 |
Pages |
1494-1511 |
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Keywords |
Global dynamic models; price analysis; wheat market; lagged dependent-variables; commodity-markets; error-correction; food-prices; unit-root; regressors; tests; cointegration; dynamics; time |
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Abstract |
Food commodity price fluctuations have an important impact on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, and there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors, as well as the link between food and energy prices. In this article, we present the results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides the short and long-run impulse responses of the international wheat price to various real and financial shocks. |
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0002-9092 1467-8276 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4658 |
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Kros, J.; Bakker, M.M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Jamal Alam, S.; de Vries, W. |
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Title |
Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socioeconomic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Landscape Ecology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Landscape Ecol. |
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30 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
871-885 |
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Keywords |
Agricultural adaptation; Climate change; Land use change; Environmental; impact; Farming system; Nitrogen losses; netherlands; diversity; scenario |
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This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection. |
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0921-2973 1572-9761 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4565 |
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Vitali, A.; Felici, A.; Esposito, S.; Bernabucci, U.; Bertocchi, L.; Maresca, C.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N. |
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The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Journal of Dairy Science |
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J. Dairy Sci. |
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98 |
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7 |
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4572-4579 |
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Animal Welfare; Animals; Cattle; Cross-Over Studies; Female; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality; *Hot Temperature; Italy/epidemiology; Logistic Models; *Movement; Retrospective Studies; Seasons; dairy cow; global warming; heat wave; mortality; welfare |
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This study investigated the mortality of dairy cows during heat waves. Mortality data (46,610 cases) referred to dairy cows older than 24 mo that died on a farm from all causes from May 1 to September 30 during a 6-yr period (2002-2007). Weather data were obtained from 12 weather stations located in different areas of Italy. Heat waves were defined for each weather station as a period of at least 3 consecutive days, from May 1 to September 30 (2002-2007), when the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference distribution (1971-2000). Summer days were classified as days in heat wave (HW) or not in heat wave (nHW). Days in HW were numbered to evaluate the relationship between mortality and length of the wave. Finally, the first 3 nHW days after the end of a heat wave were also considered to account for potential prolonged effects. The mortality risk was evaluated using a case-crossover design. A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for mortality recorded in HW compared with that recorded in nHW days pooled and stratified by duration of exposure, age of cows, and month of occurrence. Dairy cows mortality was greater during HW compared with nHW days. Furthermore, compared with nHW days, the risk of mortality continued to be higher during the 3 d after the end of HW. Mortality increased with the length of the HW. Considering deaths stratified by age, cows up to 28 mo were not affected by HW, whereas all the other age categories of older cows (29-60, 61-96, and >96 mo) showed a greater mortality when exposed to HW. The risk of death during HW was higher in early summer months. In particular, the highest risk of mortality was observed during June HW. Present results strongly support the implementation of adaptation strategies which may limit heat stress-related impairment of animal welfare and economic losses in dairy cow farm during HW. |
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2016-06-01 |
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0022-0302 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4744 |
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Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Schaphoff, S.; Kummu, M.; Lucht, W. |
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Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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Hydrol. Earth System Sci. |
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19 |
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7 |
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3073-3091 |
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surface-water; vegetation model; climate-change; food demand; fresh-water; efficiency; productivity; groundwater; impacts; requirements |
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Global agricultural production is heavily sustained by irrigation, but irrigation system efficiencies are often surprisingly low. However, our knowledge of irrigation efficiencies is mostly confined to rough indicative estimates for countries or regions that do not account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity due to climate and other biophysical dependencies. To allow for refined estimates of global agricultural water use, and of water saving and water productivity potentials constrained by biophysical processes and also nontrivial downstream effects, we incorporated a process-based representation of the three major irrigation systems (surface, sprinkler, and drip) into a bio- and agrosphere model, LPJmL. Based on this enhanced model we provide a gridded world map of irrigation efficiencies that are calculated in direct linkage to differences in system types, crop types, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and overall crop management. We find pronounced regional patterns in beneficial irrigation efficiency (a refined irrigation efficiency indicator accounting for crop-productive water consumption only), due to differences in these features, with the lowest values (< 30 %) in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and the highest values (> 60 %) in Europe and North America. We arrive at an estimate of global irrigation water withdrawal of 2469 km(3) (2004-2009 average); irrigation water consumption is calculated to be 1257 km(3), of which 608 km(3) are non-beneficially consumed, i.e., lost through evaporation, interception, and conveyance. Replacing surface systems by sprinkler or drip systems could, on average across the world’s river basins, reduce the non-beneficial consumption at river basin level by 54 and 76 %, respectively, while maintaining the current level of crop yields. Accordingly, crop water productivity would increase by 9 and 15 %, respectively, and by much more in specific regions such as in the Indus basin. This study significantly advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems. In this paper, presented opportunities associated with irrigation improvements are significant and suggest that they should be considered an important means on the way to sustainable food security. |
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2016-06-01 |
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1607-7938 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4739 |
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van Bussel, L.G.J.; Stehfest, E.; Siebert, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F. |
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Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Global Ecology and Biogeography |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. |
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24 |
Issue |
9 |
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1018-1029 |
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Agricultural management; crop calendars; cultivar; variety characteristics; global crop modelling; global harvest dates; phenology; climate-change; winter-wheat; annual crops; photoperiod sensitivity; geographical variation; temperature; responses; adaptation; cultivars; model |
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AimTo derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. LocationGlobal. Methods Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties |
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1466-822x |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4729 |
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