Records |
Author |
Lorite, I.J.; Gabaldon-Leal, C.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Belaj, A.; de la Rosa, R.; Leon, L.; Santos, C. |
Title |
Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Agricultural Water Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Water Manage. |
Volume |
204 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
247-261 |
Keywords |
Irrigation requirements; Yield; Irrigation water productivity; Olive; Climate change; Olea-Europaea L.; Different Irrigation Regimes; Water Deficits; Iberian; Peninsula; CO2 Concentration; Potential Growth; Atmospheric CO2; Southern Spain; Change Impacts; River-Basin |
Abstract |
AdaptaOlive is a simplified physically-based model that has been developed to assess the behavior of olive under future climate conditions in Andalusia, southern Spain. The integration of different approaches based on experimental data from previous studies, combined with weather data from 11 climate models, is aimed at overcoming the high degree of uncertainty in the simulation of the response of agricultural systems under predicted climate conditions. The AdaptaOlive model was applied in a representative olive orchard in the Baeza area, one of the main producer zone in Spain, with the cultivar ‘Picual’. Simulations for the end of the 21st century showed olive oil yield increases of 7.1 and 28.9% under rainfed and full irrigated conditions, respectively, while irrigation requirements decreased between 0.5 and 6.2% for full irrigation and regulated deficit irrigation, respectively. These effects were caused by the positive impact of the increase in atmospheric CO2 that counterbalanced the negative impacts of the reduction in rainfall. The high degree of uncertainty associated with climate projections translated into a high range of yield and irrigation requirement projections, confirming the need for an ensemble of climate models in climate change impact assessment. The AdaptaOlive model also was applied for evaluating adaptation strategies related to cultivars, irrigation strategies and locations. The best performance was registered for cultivars with early flowering dates and regulated deficit irrigation. Thus, in the Baeza area full irrigation requirements were reduced by 12% and the yield in rainfed conditions increased by 7% compared with late flowering cultivars. Similarly, regulated deficit irrigation requirements and yield were reduced by 46% and 18%, respectively, compared with full irrigation. The results confirm the promise offered by these strategies as adaptation measures for managing an olive crop under semi-arid conditions in a changing climate. |
Address |
2018-06-28 |
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Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0378-3774 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5204 |
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Author |
Webber, H.; Ewert, F.; Olesen, J.E.; Müller, C.; Fronzek, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Bourgault, M.; Martre, P.; Ababaei, B.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Finger, R.; Fodor, N.; Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Gaiser, T.; Jabloun, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Lizaso, J.I.; Lorite, I.J.; Manceau, L.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Siebert, S.; Stella, T.; Stratonovitch, P.; Trombi, G.; Wallach, D. |
Title |
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
Volume |
9 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
4249 |
Keywords |
Climate-Change Impacts; Air CO2 Enrichment; Food Security; Heat-Stress; Nitrogen Dynamics; Semiarid Environments; Canopy Temperature; Simulation-Model; Crop Production; Elevated CO2 |
Abstract |
Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years. |
Address |
2018-10-25 |
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Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2041-1723 |
ISBN |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5211 |
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Author |
Toscano, P.; Genesio, L.; Crisci, A.; Vaccari, F.P.; Ferrari, E.; La Cava, P.; Porter, J.R.; Gioli, B. |
Title |
Empirical modelling of regional and national durum wheat quality |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume |
204 |
Issue |
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Pages |
67-78 |
Keywords |
durum wheat; grain protein content; forecasting tool; modelling; gridded data; red winter-wheat; grain quality; climate-change; mediterranean conditions; interannual variability; protein-composition; co2 concentration; vapor-pressure; carbon-dioxide; crop yield |
Abstract |
The production of durum wheat in the Mediterranean basin is expected to experience increased variability in yield and quality as a consequence of climate change. To assess how environmental variables and agronomic practices affect grain protein content (GPC), a novel approach based on monthly gridded input data has been implemented to develop empirical model, and validated on historical time series to assess its capability to reproduce observed spatial and inter-annual GPC variability. The model was applied in four Italian regions and at the whole national scale and proved reliable and usable for operational purposes also in a forecast ‘real-time’ mode before harvesting. Precipitable water during autumn to winter and air temperature from anthesis to harvest were extremely important influences on GPC; these and additional variables, included in a linear model, were able to account for 95% of the variability in GPC that has occurred in the last 15 years in Italy. Our results are a unique example of the use of modelling as a predictive real-time platform and are a useful tool to understand better and forecast the impacts of future climate change projections on durum wheat production and quality. |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
Area |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4818 |
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Author |
Sándor, R.; Barcza, Z.; Hidy, D.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Ma, S.; Bellocchi, G. |
Title |
Modelling of grassland fluxes in Europe: evaluation of two biogeochemical models |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. |
Volume |
215 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-19 |
Keywords |
carbon-water fluxes; climate change; grasslands; model comparison; net ecosystem exchange; terrestrial carbon balance; pasture simulation-model; climate-change; nitrous-oxide; land-use; co2; photosynthesis; responses; water |
Abstract |
Two independently developed simulation models – the grassland-specific PaSim and the biome-generic Biome-BGC MuSo (BBGC MuSo) – linking climate, soil, vegetation and management to ecosystem biogeochemical cycles were compared in a simulation of carbon (C) and water fluxes. The results were assessed against eddy-covariance flux data from five observational grassland sites representing a range of conditions in Europe: Grillenburg in Germany, Laqueuille in France with both extensive and intensive management, Monte Bondone in Italy and Oensingen in Switzerland. Model comparison (after calibration) gave substantial agreement, the performances being marginal to acceptable for weekly-aggregated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (R-2 similar to 0.66 – 0.91), weekly evapotranspiration (R-2 similar to 0.78 – 0.94), soil water content in the topsoil (R-2 similar to 0.1 -0.7) and soil temperature (R-2 similar to 0.88 – 0.96). The bias was limited to the range -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) for C fluxes (-11 to 8 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of BBGC MuSo, and -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of PaSim) and -4 to 6 mm week for water fluxes (with BBGC MuSo providing somewhat higher estimates than PaSim), but some higher relative root mean square errors indicate low accuracy for prediction, especially for net ecosystem exchange The sensitivity of simulated outputs to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature and precipitation indicate, with certain agreement between the two models, that C outcomes are dominated by [CO2] and temperature gradients, and are less due to precipitation. ET rates decrease with increasing [CO2] in PaSim (consistent with experimental knowledge), while lack of appropriate stomatal response could be a limit in BBGC MuSo responsiveness. Results of the study indicate that some of the errors might be related to the improper representation of soil water content and soil temperature. Improvement is needed in the model representations of soil processes (especially soil water balance) that strongly influence the biogeochemical cycles of managed and unmanaged grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
Corporate Author |
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Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0167-8809 |
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Article |
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Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4808 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Sakschewski, B.; von Bloh, W.; Huber, V.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A. |
Title |
Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
Volume |
288 |
Issue |
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Pages |
103-111 |
Keywords |
Population growth; Food production; Dynamic global vegetation model; Climate change; LPJmL; stomatal conductance; population-growth; food-production; co2; enrichment; model; photosynthesis; scenarios; leaves; plants; yield |
Abstract |
The human population is projected to reach more than 10 billion in the year 2100. Together with changing consumption pattern, population growth will lead to increasing food demand. The question arises whether or not the Earth is capable of fulfilling this demand. In this study, we approach this question by estimating the carrying capacity of current agricultural systems (K-C), which does not measure the maximum number of people the Earth is likely to feed in the future, but rather allows for an indirect assessment of the increases in agricultural productivity required to meet demands. We project agricultural food production under progressing climate change using the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, and input data of 3 climate models. For 1990 to 2100 the worldwide annual caloric yield of the most important 11 crop types is simulated. Model runs with and without elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are performed in order to investigate CO2 fertilization effects. Country-specific per-capita caloric demands fixed at current levels and changing demands based on future GDP projections are considered to assess the role of future dietary shifts. Our results indicate that current population projections may considerably exceed the maximum number of people that can be fed globally if climate change is not accompanied by significant changes in land use, agricultural efficiencies and/or consumption pathways. We estimate the gap between projected population size and K-C to reach 2 to 6.8 billion people by 2100. We also present possible caloric self-supply changes between 2000 and 2100 for all countries included in this study. The results show that predominantly developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions will experience vast decreases of self-supply. Therefore, this study is important for planning future large-scale agricultural management, as well as the critical assessment of population projections, which should take food-mediated climate change feedbacks into account |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Place of Publication |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0304-3800 |
ISBN |
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Notes |
CropM |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4806 |
Permanent link to this record |