| Records |
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Dalgaard, T.; Kjeldsen, C.; Meyer-Aurich, A.; Özkan, S.; Rolinski, S.; Köchy, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Brouwer, F.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Kipling, R. |
| Title |
Farming systems models for regional scale impact assessment in Europe – case studies of N-losses and greenhouse gas emissions |
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Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
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LiveM |
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Scaling in global, regional and farm models, 2014-09-24 to 2014-09-24 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2380 |
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Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C. |
| Title |
Global valuation of agricultural, virtual blue water trade measured on a local scale |
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2012 |
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Conference paper presented at the 10th Annual meeting of the International Water Resource Economics Consortium, Stockholm, Sweden, 2012-08-27 to 2012-08-28 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2323 |
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Rolinski, S.; Sætnan, E. |
| Title |
Uncertainties in climate change prediction and modelling |
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Report |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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D-L1.5 |
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As models become increasingly complex and integrated, uncertainty among model parameters, variables and processes become critical for evaluating model outcomes and predictions. A framework for understanding uncertainty in climate modelling has been developed by the IPCC and EEA which provides a framework for discussion of uncertainty in models in general. Here we report on a review of this framework along with the results of a survey of sources of uncertainty in livestock and grassland models. Along with the identification of key sources of uncertainty in livestock and grassland modelling, the survey highlighted the need for a development of a common typology for uncertainty. When collaborating across traditionally separate research fields, or when communicating with stakeholders, differences in understanding, interpretation or emphasis can cause confusion. Further work in MACSUR should focus on improving model intercomparison methods to better understand model uncertainties, and improve availability of high quality datasets which can reduce model uncertainties. No Label |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2259 |
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Bodirsky, B.L.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Schmitz, C.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Humpenöder, F.; Biewald, A.; Stevanovic, M. |
| Title |
Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
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5 |
Issue |
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3858 |
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Animals; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/*supply & distribution; Environmental Pollution/*prevention & control; *Food Supply; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen Fixation; *Population Growth; Reactive Nitrogen Species/*supply & distribution |
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Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded. |
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2041-1723 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4513 |
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Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C.; Dietrich, J.P. |
| Title |
Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
| Volume |
101 |
Issue |
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Pages |
43-53 |
| Keywords |
virtual water; blue and green water; water scarcity; agricultural trade; global vegetation model; virtual water; crop trade; resources; scarcity; food; footprints; products; flows; green |
| Abstract |
International trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity. By quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid-cell level and combining it with cell- and crop-specific virtual water contents, we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings. Connecting the information on trade-related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources. To determine the trade-related value of the blue water usage, we employ two models: first, an economic land- and water-use model, simulating agricultural trade, production and water-shadow prices and second, a global vegetation and agricultural model, modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops. Our study found that globally, the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2.4 billion US$. This net saving occurs despite the fact that Europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3.1 billion US$. Countries in the Middle East and South Asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops, countries in Southern Europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites, deteriorating local water scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0921-8009 |
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CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4512 |
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