Abstract: In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenees, Zachodniopomorsld and Andalucia). These analyses Were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern-Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central-Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N2O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenees, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Abstract: Considering intensive agricultural management practices and environmental conditions, the LandscapeDNDC model was applied for simulation of yields, N2O emission and nitrate leaching from major upland crops and temperate deciduous forest of the Haean catchment, South Korea. Fertilization rates were high (up to 314 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) and resulted in simulated direct N2O emissions from potato, radish, soybean and cabbage fields of 1.9 and 2.1 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Nitrate leaching was identified as the dominant pathway of N losses in the Haean catchment with mean annual rates of 112.2 and 125.4 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), causing threats to water quality and leading to substantial indirect N2O emissions of 0.84 and 0.94 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) in 2009 and 2010 as estimates by applying the IPCC EF5. Simulated N2O emissions from temperate deciduous forest were low (approx. 0.50 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) and predicted nitrate leaching rates were even negligible (≤0.01 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)). On catchment scale more than 50% of the total N2O emissions and up to 75% of nitrate leaching originated from fertilized upland fields, only covering 24% of the catchment area. Taking into account area coverage of simulated upland crops and other land uses these numbers agree well with nitrate loads calculated from discharge and concentration measurements at the catchment outlet. The change of current agricultural management practices showed a high potential of reducing N2O emission and nitrate leaching while maintaining current crop yields. Reducing (39%) and splitting N fertilizer application into 3 times was most effective and lead to about 54% and 77% reducing of N2O emission and nitrate leaching from the Haean catchment, the latter potentially contributing to improved water quality in the Soyang River Dam, which is the major source of drinking water for metropolitan residents.

Abstract: Regionalized model calculations showed increased rainfall and temperatures in winter and less precipitation and higher temperatures in summer due to climate change effects in the future for numerous countries in the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, model simulations predicted enhanced weather variability with an increased risk of yield losses and reduced yield stability. Recently, double cropping systems (DCS) were suggested as an environmental friendly and productive adaptation strategy with increased yield stability. This paper reviews the potential benefit of four DCS (rye (Secale cereale L.) as first crop and maize (Zea mays L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), sorghum (Sorghum sudanense L. x Sorghum bicolor L.) and sudan grass (S. sudanense L.) as second crops) in comparison with four conventional sole cropping systems (SCS) (maize, sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass) with regard to dry matter (DM) yield and soil water under conditions of climate change. We used the agro-ecosystem model HERMES for simulating these variables until the year 2100. The investigated crops sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass were parameterised first for HERMES achieving a satisfying performance. Results showed always higher DM yields per year of DCS compared with SCS. This was mainly caused by yield increases of the first crop winter rye harvested at the stage of milk ripeness. As a winter hardy crop, rye will benefit from increased precipitation and higher temperatures during winter months as well as from extended growth periods with an earlier onset in spring and an increase of growing days. Furthermore, rye is able to use the increased winter humidity for its spring growth in an efficient way. By contrast, model simulations showed that summer crops will be affected by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures during summer month for periods from 2050 onwards with the consequence of reduced yields. This yield reduction was found for all summer crops both in conventional sole crop and in DCS. Preponed harvesting of first crop winter rye as a consequence of earlier onset of growth period in spring under prospective climatic conditions lead to yield decrease, which could not be equalised by preponed sowing of second crops and extension of their growth period. Hence, total annual yield of both crops together decreased. The modification of sowing and harvesting dates as an adaptation strategy requires further research with the use of more holistic simulation models. To summarize, DCS may provide a promising adaptation strategy to effects of climate change with a substantial stabilisation of crop yields.