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Author Ventrella, D.; Charfeddine, M.; Moriondo, M.; Rinaldi, M.; Bindi, M. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg Environ Change  
  Volume 12 Issue 3 Pages 407-419  
  Keywords Modelling; Climate change; Agronomic adaptation strategies; Yield; Tomato; Winter durum wheat; air co2 enrichment; change scenarios; cropping systems; change impacts; simulation; agriculture; variability; increase; model; responses; Environmental Sciences & Ecology  
  Abstract Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO2 atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975-2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2A degrees C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5A degrees C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5A degrees C future climate scenario. Under the +2A degrees C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2A degrees C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 1436-3798 1436-378x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4480  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Martre, P.; He, J.; Le Gouis, J.; Semenov, M.A. doi  openurl
  Title In silico system analysis of physiological traits determining grain yield and protein concentration for wheat as influenced by climate and crop management Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of Experimental Botany Abbreviated Journal J. Experim. Bot.  
  Volume 66 Issue 12 Pages 3581-3598  
  Keywords Climate; *Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development/physiology; Edible Grain/*growth & development; Models, Biological; Nitrogen/metabolism; Plant Proteins/*metabolism; Plant Transpiration; Probability; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Soil/chemistry; Triticum/growth & development/metabolism/*physiology; Water/chemistry; Crop growth model; genetic adaptation; grain protein concentration; grain yield; interannual variability; sensitivity analysis; wheat (Triticum aestivum L.); yield stability  
  Abstract Genetic improvement of grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC) is impeded by large genotype×environment×management interactions and by compensatory effects between traits. Here global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the process-based wheat model SiriusQuality2 were conducted with the aim of identifying candidate traits to increase GY and GPC. Three contrasted European sites were selected and simulations were performed using long-term weather data and two nitrogen (N) treatments in order to quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on GY and GPC under variable environments. The overall influence of all 75 plant parameters of SiriusQuality2 was first analysed using the Morris method. Forty-one influential parameters were identified and their individual (first-order) and total effects on the model outputs were investigated using the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test. The overall effect of the parameters was dominated by their interactions with other parameters. Under high N supply, a few influential parameters with respect to GY were identified (e.g. radiation use efficiency, potential duration of grain filling, and phyllochron). However, under low N, >10 parameters showed similar effects on GY and GPC. All parameters had opposite effects on GY and GPC, but leaf and stem N storage capacity appeared as good candidate traits to change the intercept of the negative relationship between GY and GPC. This study provides a system analysis of traits determining GY and GPC under variable environments and delivers valuable information to prioritize model development and experimental work.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN (up) 1460-2431 (Electronic) 0022-0957 (Linking) ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4567  
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Author van Bussel, L.G.J.; Stehfest, E.; Siebert, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Global Ecology and Biogeography Abbreviated Journal Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr.  
  Volume 24 Issue 9 Pages 1018-1029  
  Keywords Agricultural management; crop calendars; cultivar; variety characteristics; global crop modelling; global harvest dates; phenology; climate-change; winter-wheat; annual crops; photoperiod sensitivity; geographical variation; temperature; responses; adaptation; cultivars; model  
  Abstract AimTo derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. LocationGlobal. Methods Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 1466-822x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4729  
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Author Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. doi  openurl
  Title Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of the Royal Society Interface Abbreviated Journal J. R. Soc. Interface  
  Volume 12 Issue 112 Pages 20150721  
  Keywords climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat  
  Abstract Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 1742-5689 1742-5662 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4819  
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Author Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.; Rezaei, E.E.; Kage, H.; Grass, R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Impact of heat stress on crop yield-on the importance of considering canopy temperature Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 9 Issue 4 Pages  
  Keywords heat stress; crop yield; temperature; soil moisture; modelling; wheat; rye; harvest index; wheat yields; climate-change; winter-wheat; grain number; extreme heat; maize; variability; irrigation; drought  
  Abstract Increasing crop productivity while simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of crop production is considered a major challenge for the coming decades. Even short episodes of heat stress can reduce crop yield considerably causing low resource use efficiency. Studies on the impact of heat stress on crop yields over larger regions generally rely on temperatures measured by standard weather stations at 2 m height. Canopy temperatures measured in this study in field plots of rye were up to 7 degrees C higher than air temperature measured at typical weather station height with the differences in temperatures controlled by soil moisture contents. Relationships between heat stress and grain number derived from controlled environment studies were only confirmed under field conditions when canopy temperature was used to calculate stress thermal time. By using hourly mean temperatures measured by 78 weather stations located across Germany for the period 1994-2009 it is estimated, that mean yield declines in wheat due to heat stress during flowering were 0.7% when temperatures are measured at 2 m height, but yield declines increase to 22% for temperatures measured at the ground. These results suggest that canopy temperature should be simulated or estimated to reduce uncertainty in assessing heat stress impacts on crop yield.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 1748-9326 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4814  
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