| |
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M.F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; François, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I.J.; Minet, J.; Minguez, M.I.; Montesino-San Martin, M.; Moriondo, M.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R.P. |
|
| |
Title |
Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
|
| |
Volume |
65 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
87-105 |
|
| |
Keywords |
climate; crop model; impact response surface; IRS; sensitivity analysis; wheat; yield; climate-change impacts; uncertainty; 21st-century; projections; simulation; growth; region |
|
| |
Abstract |
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN  |
0936-577x 1616-1572 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4662 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Hlavinka, P.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Dubrovský, M.; Fischer, M.; Pohanková, E.; Balek, J.; Žalud, Z.; Trnka, M. |
|
| |
Title |
Water balance, drought stress and yields for rainfed field crop rotations under present and future conditions in the Czech Republic |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
|
| |
Volume |
65 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
175-192 |
|
| |
Keywords |
crop growth model; evapotranspiration; soil; climate change; climate-change scenarios; spring barley; wheat production; winter-wheat; model; impacts; europe; uncertainties; simulation; strategies |
|
| |
Abstract |
Continuous crop rotation modeling is a prospective trend that, compared to 1-crop or discrete year-by-year calculations, can provide more accurate results that are closer to real conditions. The goal of this study was to compare the water balance and yields estimated by the HERMES crop rotation model for present and future climatic conditions in the Czech Republic. Three locations were selected, representing important agricultural regions with different climatic conditions. Crop rotation (spring barley, silage maize, winter wheat, winter rape) was simulated from 1981-2080. The 1981-2010 period was covered by measured meteorological data, while 2011-2080 was represented by a transient synthetic weather series from the weather generator M& Rfi. The data were based on 5 circulation models, representing an ensemble of 18 CMIP3 global circulation models, to preserve much of the uncertainty of the original ensemble. Two types of crop management were compared, and the influences of soil quality, increasing atmospheric CO2 and adaptation measures (i. e. sowing date changes) were also considered. Results suggest that under a ‘dry’ scenario (such as GFCM21), C-3 crops in drier regions will be devastated for a significant number of seasons. Negative impacts are likely even on premium-quality soils regardless of flexible sowing dates and accounting for increasing CO2 concentrations. Moreover, in dry conditions, the use of crop rotations with catch crops may have negative impacts, exacerbating the soil water deficit for subsequent crops. This approach is a promising method for determining how various management strategies and crop rotations can affect yields as well as water, carbon and nitrogen cycling. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0936-577x 1616-1572 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4663 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Zhao, G.; Hoffmann, H.; van Bussel, L.G.J.; Enders, A.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Yeluripati, J.; Tao, F.L.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Doro, L.; Zhao, Z.G.; Nendel, C.; Kiese, R.; Eckersten, H.; Haas, E.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Wang, E.; Kuhnert, M.; Trombi, G.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Lewan, E.; Bach, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Rotter, R.; Roggero, P.P.; Wallach, D.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Krauss, G.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
|
| |
Title |
Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
|
| |
Volume |
65 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
141-157 |
|
| |
Keywords |
crop model; model comparison; spatial resolution; data aggregation; spatial heterogeneity; scaling; climate-change scenarios; sub-saharan africa; winter-wheat; spatial-resolution; yield response; input data; systems simulation; large-scale; soil data; part i |
|
| |
Abstract |
We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 process-based crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and silage maize) under 3 production conditions for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The DAE was evaluated for 5 weather data resolutions (i.e. 1, 10, 25, 50, and 100 km) for 3 response variables including yield, growing season evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency. Five metrics, viz. the spatial bias (Delta), average absolute deviation (AAD), relative AAD, root mean squared error (RMSE), and relative RMSE, were used to evaluate the DAE on both the input weather data and simulated results. For weather data, we found that data aggregation narrowed the spatial variability but widened the., especially across mountainous areas. The DAE on loss of spatial heterogeneity and hotspots was stronger than on the average changes over the region. The DAE increased when coarsening the spatial resolution of the input weather data. The DAE varied considerably across different models, but changed only slightly for different production conditions and crops. We conclude that if spatially detailed information is essential for local management decision, higher resolution is desirable to adequately capture the spatial variability for heterogeneous regions. The required resolution depends on the choice of the model as well as the environmental condition of the study area. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0936-577x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4754 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Tao, F.; Lehtonen, H. |
|
| |
Title |
Effects of climate and historical adaptation measures on barley yield trends in Finland |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
|
| |
Volume |
65 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
221-236 |
|
| |
Keywords |
adaptation; climate; crop simulation modelling; plant breeding; spring barley; yield gap; crop production; spring barley; quantitative-evaluation; european conditions; cereal cultivars; growing-season; use efficiency; field crops; wheat; northern |
|
| |
Abstract |
In this study, the WOFOST crop simulation model was used together with comprehensive empirical databases on barley Hordeum vulgare L. to study the contributions of different yield-determining and -limiting factors to observed trends of barley yield in Finland from 1988 to 2008. Simulations were performed at 3 study sites representing different agro-ecological zones, and compared with the data from experimental sites and that reported by local farmers. Yield gaps between simulated potential yields and farmers’ yields and their trends were assessed. Positive observed yield trends of Finnish barley mostly resulted from the development and usage of new, high-yielding cultivars. Simulated trends in climatic potential and water-limited potential yields of individual cultivars showed a slight declining trend. Yield gaps showed an increasing trend in 2 out of 3 study areas. Since the mid-1990s, a major reason for this has been the lack of market and policy incentives favouring crop management decisions, i.e. annual fertilisation, soil maintenance, drainage and crop rotation decisions, aiming for higher yields. The study indicates potential options for increasing or maintaining barley yields in the future. The breeding of new climate-resilient cultivars is the primary option. However, this needs to work alongside overall adjustments to farm management and must be supported by financial incentives for farmers to increase yields. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0936-577x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4700 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Waha, K.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S. |
|
| |
Title |
Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid- to late-21st century |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Global and Planetary Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global and Planetary Change |
|
| |
Volume |
106 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
1-12 |
|
| |
Keywords |
climate change; wet season; water stress; temperature stress; hierarchical cluster analysis; global vegetation model; climate-change; southern africa; east-africa; part i; food; heat; agriculture; variability; impacts |
|
| |
Abstract |
Maize (Zea mays L) is one of the most important food crops and very common in all parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010 53 million tons of maize were produced in sub-Saharan Africa on about one third of the total harvested cropland area (similar to 33 million ha). Our aim is to identify the limiting agroclimatic variable for maize growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the separated and combined effects of temperature and precipitation. Under changing climate, both climate variables are projected to change severely, and their impacts on crop yields are frequently assessed using process-based crop models. However it is often unclear which agroclimatic variable will have the strongest influence on crop growth and development under climate change and previous studies disagree over this question. We create synthetic climate data in order to study the effect of large changes in the length of the wet season and the amount of precipitation during the wet season both separately and in combination with changes in temperature. The dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL is used to simulate maize yields under current and future climatic conditions for the two 10-year periods 2056-2065 and 2081-2090 for three climate scenarios for the A1b emission scenario but without considering the beneficial CO2 fertilization effect. The importance of temperature and precipitation effects on maize yields varies spatially and we identify four groups of crop yield changes: regions with strong negative effects resulting from climate change (<-33% yield change), regions with moderate (-33% to -10% yield change) or slight negative effects (-10% to +6% yield change), and regions with positive effects arising from climate change mainly in currently temperature-limited high altitudes (>+6% yield change). In the first three groups temperature increases lead to maize yield reductions of 3 to 20%, with the exception of mountainous and thus cooler regions in South and East Africa. A reduction of the wet season precipitation causes decreases in maize yield of at least 30% and prevails over the effect of increased temperatures in southern parts of Mozambique and Zambia, the Sahel and parts of eastern Africa in the two projection periods. This knowledge about the limiting abiotic stress factor in each region will help to prioritize future research needs in modeling of agricultural systems as well as in drought and heat stress breeding programs and to identify adaption options in agricultural development projects. On the other hand the study enhances the understanding of temperature and water stress effects on crop yields in a global vegetation model in order to identify future research and model development needs. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0921-8181 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4508 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
