| Records |
| Author |
Sakschewski, B.; von Bloh, W.; Huber, V.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A. |
| Title |
Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
| Volume |
288 |
Issue |
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Pages |
103-111 |
| Keywords |
Population growth; Food production; Dynamic global vegetation model; Climate change; LPJmL; stomatal conductance; population-growth; food-production; co2; enrichment; model; photosynthesis; scenarios; leaves; plants; yield |
| Abstract |
The human population is projected to reach more than 10 billion in the year 2100. Together with changing consumption pattern, population growth will lead to increasing food demand. The question arises whether or not the Earth is capable of fulfilling this demand. In this study, we approach this question by estimating the carrying capacity of current agricultural systems (K-C), which does not measure the maximum number of people the Earth is likely to feed in the future, but rather allows for an indirect assessment of the increases in agricultural productivity required to meet demands. We project agricultural food production under progressing climate change using the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, and input data of 3 climate models. For 1990 to 2100 the worldwide annual caloric yield of the most important 11 crop types is simulated. Model runs with and without elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are performed in order to investigate CO2 fertilization effects. Country-specific per-capita caloric demands fixed at current levels and changing demands based on future GDP projections are considered to assess the role of future dietary shifts. Our results indicate that current population projections may considerably exceed the maximum number of people that can be fed globally if climate change is not accompanied by significant changes in land use, agricultural efficiencies and/or consumption pathways. We estimate the gap between projected population size and K-C to reach 2 to 6.8 billion people by 2100. We also present possible caloric self-supply changes between 2000 and 2100 for all countries included in this study. The results show that predominantly developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions will experience vast decreases of self-supply. Therefore, this study is important for planning future large-scale agricultural management, as well as the critical assessment of population projections, which should take food-mediated climate change feedbacks into account |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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0304-3800 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4806 |
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| Author |
Höglind, M.; Van Oijen, M.; Cameron, D.; Persson, T. |
| Title |
Process-based simulation of growth and overwintering of grassland using the BASGRA model |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
| Volume |
335 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-15 |
| Keywords |
Cold hardening; Frost injury; Phleum pratense L.; Process-based; modelling; Winter survival; Yield; low-temperature tolerance; perennial forage crops; dry-matter; production; climate-change; nutritive-value; snow-cover; bayesian; calibration; timothy regrowth; phleum-pratense; lolium-perenne |
| Abstract |
Process-based models (PBM) for simulation of weather dependent grass growth can assist farmers and plant breeders in addressing the challenges of climate change by simulating alternative roads of adaptation. They can also provide management decision support under current conditions. A drawback of existing grass models is that they do not take into account the effect of winter stresses, limiting their use for full-year simulations in areas where winter survival is a key factor for yield security. Here, we present a novel full-year PBM for grassland named BASGRA. It was developed by combining the LINGRA grassland model (Van Oijen et al., 2005a) with models for cold hardening and soil physical winter processes. We present the model and show how it was parameterized for timothy (Phleum pratense L.), the most important forage grass in Scandinavia and parts of North America and Asia. Uniquely, BASGRA simulates the processes taking place in the sward during the transition from summer to winter, including growth cessation and gradual cold hardening, and functions for simulating plant injury due to low temperatures, snow and ice affecting regrowth in spring. For the calibration, we used detailed data from five different locations in Norway, covering a wide range of agroclimatic regions, day lengths (latitudes from 59 degrees to 70 degrees N) and soil conditions. The total dataset included 11 variables, notably above-ground dry matter, leaf area index, tiller density, content of C reserves, and frost tolerance. All data were used in the calibration. When BASGRA was run with the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) parameter vector from the single, Bayesian calibration, nearly all measured variables were simulated to an overall normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) <0.5. For many site x experiment combinations, NRMSE was <0.3. The temporal dynamics were captured well for most variables, as evaluated by comparing simulated time courses versus data for the individual sites. The results may suggest that BASGRA is a reasonably robust model, allowing for simulation of growth and several important underlying processes with acceptable accuracy for a range of agroclimatic conditions. However, the robustness of the model needs to be tested further using independent data from a wide range of growing conditions. Finally we show an example of application of the model, comparing overwintering risks in two climatically different sites, and discuss future model applications. Further development work should include improved simulation of the dynamics of C reserves, and validation of winter tiller dynamics against independent data. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2016-07-28 |
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English |
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0304-3800 |
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| Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4764 |
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| Author |
Jing, Q.; Bélanger, G.; Baron, V.; Bonesmo, H.; Virkajärvi, P.; Young, D. |
| Title |
Regrowth simulation of the perennial grass timothy |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
| Volume |
232 |
Issue |
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Pages |
64-77 |
| Keywords |
biomass; carbohydrate; leaf area index; n uptake; reserve-dependent growth; temperature; nutritive-value; carbohydrate reserves; phleum-pratense; catimo model; leaf-area; nitrogen-fertilization; spring harvest; meadow fescue; tall fescue; growth |
| Abstract |
Several process-based models for simulating the growth of perennial grasses have been developed but few include the simulation of regrowth. The model CATIMO simulates the primary growth of timothy (Phleum pratense L), an important perennial forage grass species in northern regions of Europe and North America. Our objective was to further develop the model CATIMO to simulate timothy regrowth using the concept of reserve-dependent growth. The performance of this modified CATIMO model in simulating leaf area index (LAI), biomass dry matter (DM) yield, and N uptake of regrowth was assessed with data from four independent field experiments in Norway, Finland, and western and eastern Canada using an approach that combines graphical comparison and statistical analysis. Biomass DM yield and N uptake of regrowth were predicted at the same accuracy as primary growth with linear regression coefficients of determination between measured and simulated values greater than 0.79, model simulation efficiencies greater than 0.78, and normalized root mean square errors (14-30% for biomass and 24-34% for N uptake) comparable with the coefficients of variation of measured data (1-21% for biomass and 1-25% for N uptake). The model satisfactorily simulated the regrowth LAI but only up to a value of about 4.0. The modified CATIMO model with its capacity to simulate regrowth provides a framework to simulate perennial grasses with multiple harvests, and to explore management options for sustainable grass production under different environmental conditions. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0304-3800 |
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CropM, LiveM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4473 |
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| Author |
Lipiec, J.; Doussan, C.; Nosalewicz, A.; Kondracka, K. |
| Title |
Effect of drought and heat stresses on plant growth and yield: a review |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
International Agrophysics |
Abbreviated Journal |
International Agrophysics |
| Volume |
27 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
463-477 |
| Keywords |
water stress; high temperature; root and shoot; growth; tolerance mechanisms; management practices; water-use efficiency; soil physical-properties; abscisic-acid; high-temperature; root systems; hydraulic architecture; conservation tillage; photosystem-ii; l. genotypes; drying soil |
| Abstract |
Drought and heat stresses are important threat limitations to plant growth and sustainable agriculture worldwide. Our objective is to provide a review of plant responses and adaptations to drought and elevated temperature including roots, shoots, and final yield and management approaches for alleviating adverse effects of the stresses based mostly on recent literature. The sections of the paper deal with plant responses including root growth, transpiration, photosynthesis, water use efficiency, phenotypic flexibility, accumulation of compounds of low molecular mass (eg proline and gibberellins), and expression of some genes and proteins for increasing the tolerance to the abiotic stresses. Soil and crop management practices to alleviate negative effects of drought and heat stresses are also discussed. Investigations involving determination of plant assimilate partitioning, phenotypic plasticity, and identification of most stress- tolerant plant genotypes are essential for understanding the complexity of the responses and for future plant breeding. The adverse effects of drought and heat stress can be mitigated by soil management practices, crop establishment, and foliar application of growth regulators by maintaining an appropriate level of water in the leaves due to osmotic adjustment and stomatal performance. |
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| ISSN |
0236-8722 |
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Medium |
Review |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4608 |
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| Author |
Müller, C. |
| Title |
African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Annual Review of Nutrition |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ann. Rev. Nutr. |
| Volume |
33 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
395-411 |
| Keywords |
Africa/epidemiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*growth & development; Diet/adverse effects/economics; Forecasting; *Global Health/economics/trends; Humans; Malnutrition/economics/epidemiology/prevention & control; *Models, Theoretical; Risk; Soil/chemistry; Water Resources/economics |
| Abstract |
Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited. |
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English |
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0199-9885 1545-4312 |
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CropM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4496 |
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