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Wallach, D.; Thorburn, P.; Asseng, S.; Challinor, A.J.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.; Ruane, A. |
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Title |
Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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Volume |
84 |
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Pages |
529-539 |
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Keywords |
Crop model; Uncertainty; Prediction error; Parameter uncertainty; Input uncertainty; Model structure uncertainty |
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Abstract |
Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEPfixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEPuncertain(X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEPuncertain(X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEPuncertain(X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation. |
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English |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4773 |
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Author |
Bourgeois, C.; Fradj, N.B.; Jayet, P.-A. |
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Title |
How cost-effective is a mixed policy targeting the management of three agricultural N-pollutants |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Assessment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Modelling & Assessment |
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Volume |
19 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
389-405 |
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Keywords |
cost-effectiveness; mixed policy; n-input tax; land use policy; nitrogen pollutants; bioeconomic model; mathematical linear programming; miscanthus; nonpoint pollution-control; reed canary grass; biomass production; abatement costs; energy crop; miscanthus; nitrogen; model; efficiencies; instruments |
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Abstract |
This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of a mixed policy in attempts to reduce the presence of three nitrogen pollutants: NO (3), N O-2, and NH (3). The policy under study combines a tax on nitrogen input and incentives promoting perennial crops assumed to require low input. We show that the mixed policy improves the cost-effectiveness of regulation with regard to nitrates, whereas no improvement occurs, except for a very low level of subsidy in some cases, for gas pollutants. A quantitative analysis provides an assessment of impacts in terms of land use, farmers’ income, and nitrogen losses throughout France and at river-basin scale. |
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1420-2026 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4661 |
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