Holman, I. P., Brown, C., Janes, V., & Sandars, D. (2017). Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis. Agric. Syst., 151, 126–135.
Abstract: The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
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Topp, K., Eory, V., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., Cortignani, R., et al. (2017). Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication.
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Del Prado, A., van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A., Chadwick, D., Misselbrook, T., Sandars, D. L., Audsley, E., et al. (2014). Synergies between mitigation and adaption to climate change in grassland-based farming systems..
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Sandars, D. (2015). Understanding Europe’s future ability to feed itself within an uncertain climate change and socio economic scenario space (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (yields and land suitability) and demand which are affected by future climate and socio-economic change (arising from changing food demand; prices; technology change etc). Land use under 2050 climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be rapidly and systematically quantified with a modelling system that has been developed from meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et al; 2015). Profitability of each possible land use is modelled for every soil in every grid across the EU. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds set for intensive agriculture extensive agriculture, managed forest and finally unmanaged forest or unmanaged land. The European demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. The model iterates until demand is satisfied (or cannot be met at any price). Results are presented as contour plots of key variables. For example, given a 40% increase in population from the baseline socio-economic scenario, adapting by increasing crop yields by 40% will leave a 38% probability that the 2050 future climate will be such that we cannot feed ourselves – considering “all” the possible climate scenarios. No Label
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Del Prado, A., Van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A., Chadwick, D., Misselbrook, T., Sandars, D., Audsley, E., et al. (2015). Synergies between mitigation and adaptation to Climate Change in grassland-based farming systems (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Climate change mitigation and adaptation have generally been considered in separate settings for both scientific and policy viewpoints. Recently, it has been stressed (e.g. by the latest IPCC reports) the importance to consider both mitigation and adaptation from land management together. To date, although there is already large amount of studies considering climate mitigation and adaptation in relation to grassland-based systems, there are no studies that analyse the potential synergies and tradeoffs for the main climate change mitigation and adaptation measures within the current European Policy context. This paper reviews which mitigation and adaptation measures interact with each other and how, and it explores the potential limitations and strengths of the different policy instruments that may have an effect in European grassland-based livestock systems. No Label
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