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Stevanović, M.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Schmitz, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Humpenöder, F.; Weindl, I. |
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The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
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Science Advances |
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Sci. Adv. |
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2 |
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8 |
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e1501452 |
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ftnotmacsur |
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Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. |
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5003 |
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Biewald, A.; Sinabell, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Zimmermann, A.; Lehtonen, H. |
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Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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T1.2-XC16.2 |
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Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined. |
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5034 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Agriculture in a 4°C warmer world |
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2013 |
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A day about Future Agriculture, Ultuna/Uppsala, Sweden, 2013-10-16 to 2013-10-17 |
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2609 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Panel Discussion: A Place at the Table |
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2013 |
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2013 Borlaug Dialogue: Biotechnology, Sustainability and Climate Volatility, Des Moines, Iowa, USA, 2013-10-15 to 2013-10-18 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2611 |
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Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Sustainable land use and climate change: Monitoring, modelling, managing |
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2013 |
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Vortrag im Rahmen des Berufungsverfahrens zur Besetzung der W3-S-Professur Nachhaltige Landnutzung und Klimawandel, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Landw.-Gärtn. Fakultät, 2013-01-08 to 2013-01-08 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2612 |
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