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Schönhart, M. |
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Title |
Analysis of climate change adaptation with bio-economic farm models: lessons from MACSUR regional pilot studies |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-58 |
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Integrated land use models (ILM) featuring agronomic and economic drivers of land use are frequently applied to serve the high information demand of stakeholders. This presentation results from collaboration among bio-economic farm modelers across the MACSUR regional pilot studies (www.macsur.eu) and shall compare and finally reveal good practice examples on the representation of climate change adaptation in bio-economic farm models. First results show a considerable diversity of approaches employed in the MACSUR regional pilot studies. All are programming models that optimize more or less elaborated forms of utility. All consider or plan to consider crop yield impacts from bio-physical crop models based on daily-resolution climate data. While some models include pest and diseases or livestock impacts, none take climate change impacts on market prices or interactions among farms into account so far. Clearly, adaptation options determine the solution space and are mainly expert-based in the regional case studies. Overall, the models are normative and analyze economically rational and optimal land use and management at the farm level, capable of showing the likely direction of differences in future management as a response to exogenous parameter changes (prices, yields, disease pressure, changed policy conditions, etc.). Such detailed models and their results may be applied in stakeholder interaction. Integrating the different direct and indirect effects of climate change, including the policy dimension, is the main contribution of farm level modelling of agricultural systems in the domain of climate change adaptation research. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2173 |
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Kirchner, M.; Schmid, E.; Mitter, H.; Schönhart, M. |
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Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Market Integration on Agricultural Production and Land Use Management in Austria |
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2015 |
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IIASA Interim Report Young Scientists Summer Program |
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TradeM C6 - |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2065 |
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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Schmid, E. |
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Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts – preliminary results from two Austrian case study landscapes |
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2014 |
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We present an integrated land use modelling framework (ILM) to analyze impacts of climate change and CAP reform as well as farm adaptation using economic, biotic and abiotic indicators at field, farm and landscape scales. The IML is applied on the two contrasting landscapes in the Austrian MACSUR regional pilot study. The scenarios cover climate and policy changes until 2040. The anticipated policy changes lead to declines in farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes, respectively. In contrast, climate change leads to higher gross margins, where farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Environmental impacts such as removing of landscape elements and increasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program, but the opportunity costs of program participation may increase. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5091 |
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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Regional Pilot Case Study Mostviertel – AT: Preliminary Results |
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2014 |
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An integrated modelling framework (IMF) is developed to analyse impacts of climate andpolicy changes on farm welfare and the environment. The IMF is applied on two contrasting grassland (south) and cropland (north) dominated Austrian landscapes. The IMF combines the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bio-economic farm model FAMOS[space] and applies combined climate change and policy scenarios. Changing policies reduce farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes respectively. Climate change increases gross margins and farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Climate induced intensification such as removing of landscape elements andincreasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program (AEP). However, productivity gains from climate change increase the opportunity costs for AEP participation. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5120 |
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Author |
Schönhart, M. |
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Title |
Regional Pilot Case Study: Mostviertal – AT, upcoming project phase |
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2014 |
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The presentation indicates our plans for activities in the Mostviertel region in the next project phase. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5121 |
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