Shrestha, S., Hennessy, T., Abdalla, M., Forristal, D., & Jones, M. J. (2014). Determining short term responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change. German Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63(3), 143–155.
Abstract: This study aimed to determine short term farm responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change. The Irish National Farm Survey data and Irish weather data were the main datasets used in this study. A set of simulation models were used to determine grass yields and field time under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. An optimising farm level model which maximises farm net income under limiting farm resources was then run under these scenarios. Changes in farm net incomes under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario were taken as a measure to determine the effect of climate change on farms. Any changes in farm activities under the climate run compared to the baseline run were considered as farm’s responses to maximise farm profits. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in yields of grass (49% to 56%) in all regions. The impact of climate change on farms was different based on the regions. Dairy farms in the Border, Midlands and South East regions suffered whereas dairy farms in other regions generally fared better under the climate change scenario. For a majority of farms, a substitution of concentrate feed with grass based feeds and increasing stocking rate were identified as the most common farm responses. However, farms replaced concentrate feed at varying degree. Dairy farms in the Mid East showed a move towards beef production system where medium dairy farms in the South East regions shifted entire tillage land to grass land. Farms in the South East region also kept animals on grass longer under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario.
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Eory, V., MacLeod, M., Shrestha, S., & Roberts, D. (2014). Linking an economic and a life-cycle analysis biophysical model to support agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy. German Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63, 133–142.
Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is one of the main challenges facing agriculture, exacerbated by the increasing demand for food, in particular for livestock products. Production expansion needs to be accompanied by reductions in the GHG emission intensity of agricultural products, if significant increases in emissions are to be avoided. Suggested farm management changes often have systemic effects on farm, therefore their investigation requires a whole farm approach. At the same time, changes in GHG emissions arising offfarm in food supply chains (pre- or post-farm) can also occur as a consequence of these management changes. A modelling framework that quantifies the whole-farm, life-cycle effects of GHG mitigation measures on emissions and farm finances has been developed. It is demonstrated via a case study of sexed semen on Scottish dairy farms. The results show that using sexed semen on dairy farms might be a costeffective way to reduce emissions from cattle production by increasing the amount of lower emission intensity ‘dairy beef’ produced. It is concluded that a modelling framework combining a GHG life cycle analysis model and an economic model is a useful tool to help designing targeted agri-environmental policies at regional and national levels. It has the flexibility to model a wide variety of farm types, locations and management changes, and the LCA-approach adopted helps to ensure that GHG emission leakage does not occur in the supply chain.
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Bennett, E., Carpenter, S. R., Gordon, L. J., Ramankutty, N., Balvanera, P., Campbell, B., et al. (2014). Toward a more resilient agriculture. The Solutions Journal, 5(5), 65–75.
Abstract: Agriculture is a key driver of change in the Anthropocene. It is both a critical factor for human well-being and development and a major driver of environmental decline. As the human population expands to more than 9 billion by 2050, we will be compelled to find ways to adequately feed this population while simultaneously decreasing the environmental impact of agriculture, even as global change is creating new circumstances to which agriculture must respond. Many proposals to accomplish this dual goal of increasing agricultural production while reducing its environmental impact are based on increasing the efficiency of agricultural production relative to resource use and relative to unintended outcomes such as water pollution, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions. While increasing production efficiency is almost certainly necessary, it is unlikely to be sufficient and may in some instances reduce long-term agricultural resilience, for example, by degrading soil and increasing the fragility of agriculture to pest and disease outbreaks and climate shocks. To encourage an agriculture that is both resilient and sustainable, radically new approaches to agricultural development are needed. These approaches must build on a diversity of solutions operating at nested scales, and they must maintain and enhance the adaptive and transformative capacity needed to respond to disturbances and avoid critical thresholds. Finding such approaches will require that we encourage experimentation, innovation, and learning, even if they sometimes reduce short-term production efficiency in some parts of the world.
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Żarski, J., Dudek, S., Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R., Bojar, W., Knopik, L., & Żarski, W. (2014). Agroklimatologiczna ocena opadów atmosferycznych okresu wegetacyjnego w rejonie Bydgoszczy (Agro-climatological assessment of the growing season rainfall in the Bydgoszcz region). Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich (Infrastructure and Ecology of Rural Areas), Ii(3), 643–656.
Abstract: The aim of the research was an agro-climatologic assessment of the amount of rainfall on a local scale, mainly aimed to identify trends in their changes and a possible rise in their variability over time. In the studies also we wanted to demonstrate the impact of the amount of rainfall in the region of Bydgoszcz on the yield of some crops. Material for the study consists of rainfall measurements, carried out in a stand- ard way in the years 1981-2010 at the Research Station of the University of Technology and Life Sciences in Bydgoszcz. Station is located in the village of Mochle, located approximately 20 km from the city centre (φ=53013’ N, λ=17051’E, h=98.5 m above sea level) in sparsely urbanized and industrialized area. We also used data of the yield of selected crops (potato, barley, corn for grain, legumes), from the production in the region of Kujawy and Pomorze as well as from our own experimental field. It has been shown that the average long-term rainfall during the growing season allows for classifying Bydgoszcz region as the area with the lowest rainfall in Poland. Analyzed rainfalls were characterized by a very high variability in time, resulting in climatic risk of plant growing. The largest temporal variability related to August. However, there was no extension of the time variability of rainfall totals in the period 1996-2010, as compared to the period 1981-1995. The sole significant growth trend during the period 1981-2010 was found in May. It appeared a tendency to a decline in summer rainfall totals (VI-VIII) in the annual rainfall total, which is consistent with the IPCC projections. Rainfall totals had highly signi cant impact on yields of selected crops. The highest correlation coefficients were found in relations crop-rainfall in the months of increased water needs of plants. Better correlations rainfall-crop were found using data from the production scale as compared with the scale of experimental field.
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Twardy, S., & Kopacz, M. (2014). Comparison of concentrations and loads of macronutrients brought with precipitation and leaching from the soil profile. Pol. J. Environ. Stud., 23(3a), 132–136.
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