Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Bindi, M., Palosuo, T., Wu, L., Sharif, B., et al. (2014). Model inter-comparison on crop rotation effects – an intermediate report. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Data of diverse crop rotations from five locations across Europe were distributed to modelers to investigate the capability of models to handle complex crop rotations and management interactions. Crop rotations comprise various main crops (winter/spring wheat, winter/spring barley, rye, oat, maize, sugar beet, oil seed rape and potatoes) plus several catch crops. The experimental setup of the datasets included treatments such as modified soils, crops exchanged within the rotations, irrigation/rainfed, nitrogen fertilization, residue management, tillage and atmospheric CO2 concentration. 19 modeling teams registered to model either the whole rotation or single crops. Models which are capable to run the whole rotation should provide transient as well as single year simulations with a reset of initial conditions. In the first step only initial soil conditions (water and soil mineral N) of the first year and key phenological stages were provided to the modelers. For calibration, crop yields and biomass were provided for selected years but not for all seasons. In total the combination of treatments and seasons results in 301 years of simulation. Results were analyzed to evaluate the effect of transient simulation versus single-year simulation regarding crop yield, biomass, water and nitrogen balance components. Model results will be evaluated crop-specifically to identify crops with highest uncertainty and potential for model improvement. Full data will be provided to modelers for model-improvement and results will provide insights into model capabilities to reproduce treatments and crops. Further, the question of error propagation along the transient simulation of crop rotations will be addressed.
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Ventrella, D., & Giglio, L. (2014). Regional analysis of climate change impact and adaptation strategies for winter durum wheat and tomato yield cultivated in Southern Italy. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The most important factors limiting the agriculture in Puglia region in Southern Italy are typically linked to high temperatures and low water availability. In expected future scenarios, increased challenges about such factors could further limit the crop productivity. We adopted an approach based on the simulation analysis carried out through the DSSAT implemented into AEGIS/WIN. This tool has proved to be an useful tool to manage the analysis results about the potential future impact of two regionalized climatic scenarios within the SRES scenario A2. Anomaly2 and Anomaly5, based on a target increase of global temperature of 2° and 5°C. The winter durum wheat and tomato were simulated on the basis of the interaction climate-soil on a regional scale framework interesting the whole area of Puglia (about 20000 km2) subdivided in about 200 units of simulation. The wheat yield has proved to be mainly affected by the variability of precipitation. Conversely, the largest increment of temperature of spring-summer period caused a tomato yield reduction. As second step, in order to individuate the optimal adaptation strategies for both crops, a spatial analysis focused on sowing/transplanting times, nitrogen fertilization and tomato-irrigation has been carried out. The results have clearly indicated the different sensitivity of crops to climate change as influenced by the specific interaction soil-climate and an high degree of uncertainty, especially for the sowing date, depending even on small differences related to the climatic differences characterizing the areas of the Puglia territory.
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Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Tao, F., Pirttioja, N., et al. (2016). Wheat yield potential in Europe under climate change explored by adaptation response surfaces.. Montpellier (France).
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Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Pirttioja, N., Fronzek, S., et al. (2016). Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe.. Vienna (Austria).
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Ventrella, D. (2016). The time factor in the long term resarches: statistichal and modelling approaches..
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