Sinabell, F., & Brouwer, F. (2014). TradeM synergies with AGMIP. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The AgMIP network started activities on intercomparison of global economic modelling at a time when MACSUR was not yet established. The achievements made so far are highly relevant for TradeM and several partners (Wageningen University, IIASA, PIK, University Bonn) are in both networks. The MOU between MACSUR and AGMIP established formal links between the two projects and TradeM is activley working on establishing further collaboration. Preparations are underway to bring together researchers of both networks in a joint workshop to be held in Austria, September 2014. The topic will be on issues related to linking local and regional models with global ones. TradeM will actively contribute to the workshop and will host a one-day side-event.
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Sinabel, F., & Brouwer, F. (2014). TradeM theme progress overview. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: TradeM is one theme of MACSUR and the major focus is on enhancing existing economic models and inspiring researchers to further develop and use models and tools. After establishing an inventory of models at the beginning of the project the next stage was used to prepare for the analysis in regional pilot studies. Case studies for three regions in Europe (North, Centre, South) are used to showcase the state of the art of agricultural modelling of climate change and food security in specific regional contexts and policy environments. In parallel efforts stakeholder participation processes are initiated, learning workshops and capacity building. Moreover, steps are to develop and test new concepts on economics for use in integrated assessment approaches dealing with risk and uncertainty.
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Brouwer, F., & Sinabell, F. (2015). Three years of collaboration in TradeM – Agricultural markets and prices. In FACCE MACSUR Reports (Vol. 6, pp. SP6–4). Brussels.
Abstract: Some farmers may claim that climate change adaptation is easy compared to the difficulties caused by policiesAction based on weather observations only, is insufficient for farmers to respond to climate change. Researchers need support from farmers in understanding the responses in practice.Policies might be too slow to respond to needs for change in agriculture. Winners and losers seem to be observed everywhere.The impacts of climate change is heterogeneous among farm types and regionsEffects beyond 2050 remain largely unclear, mainly because the effects of extreme events are not consideredVariability of yields is important to farm incomes, but most studies only consider average changesFarmers are ready to design their site-specific adaptation response providing that new knowledge and learning spaces are available. A learning process based on integrated models, assessment of short- and long-term effects, is needed for farmers to adapt to climate change, price fluctuations and policy change. No Label
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König, H. J., Uthes, S., Schuler, J., Zhen, L., Purushothaman, S., Suarma, U., et al. (2013). Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: findings from five case studies. J. Environ. Manage., 127 Suppl, S56–S64.
Abstract: The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human-environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups.
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