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| Author |
Humpenöder, F.; Popp, A.; Stevanovic, M.; Müller, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Bonsch, M.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Weindl, I.; Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S. |
| Title |
Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Technology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ Sci Technol |
| Volume |
49 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
6731-6739 |
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| Abstract |
Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling. |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4998 |
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| Author |
Stevanović, M.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Humpenöder, F.; Müller, C.; Weindl, I.; Dietrich, J.P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Kreidenweis, U.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Wang, X. |
| Title |
Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Environmental Science and Technology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science and Technology |
| Volume |
51 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
365-374 |
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| Abstract |
The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread. |
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0013-936x |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5007 |
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Özkan, Ş.; Vitali, A.; Lacetera, N.; Amon, B.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; de Haas, Y.; Dufrasne, I.; Elliott, J.; Eory, V.; Fox, N.J.; Garnsworthy, P.C.; Gengler, N.; Hammami, H.; Kyriazakis, I.; Leclère, D.; Lessire, F.; Macleod, M.; Robinson, T.P.; Ruete, A.; Sandars, D.L.; Shrestha, S.; Stott, A.W.; Twardy, S.; Vanrobays, M.L.; Ahmadi, B.V.; Weindl, I.; Wheelhouse, N.; Williams, A.G.; Williams, H.W.; Wilson, A.J.; Østergaard, S.; Kipling, R.P. |
| Title |
Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. |
| Volume |
151 |
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130-144 |
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Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. |
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English |
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0013-9351 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4766 |
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Topp, K.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; Del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.; Lauwers, L.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sándor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Weindl, I.; Kipling, R.P. |
| Title |
Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling |
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Report |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L2.3.2-D |
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Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4959 |
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Hutchings, N.; Weindl, I.; Topp, C.F.E.; Snow, V.O.; Rotz, A.; Raynal, H.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Martin, R.; Holzworth, D.P.; Graux, A.-I.; Faverdin, P.; Del Prado, A.; Eckard, R.; Bannink, A. |
| Title |
Does collaborative farm-scale modelling address current challenges and future opportunities |
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Report |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L1.4-D2 |
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Resources required increasing, resources available decreasing Farm-scale modellers will need to make strategic decisions Single-owner models May continue with additional resources Risk of ‘succession’ problem Community modelling is an alternative Need to continue building a community of farm modellers |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4978 |
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