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Trnka, M., Feng, S., Semenov, M. A., Olesen, J. E., Kersebaum, K. C., Roetter, R. P., et al. (2019). Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas. Sci. Adv., 5(9), eaau2406.
Abstract: Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
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Rötter, R. P., Höhn, J., Trnka, M., Fronzek, S., Carter, T. R., & Kahiluoto, H. (2013). Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change. Ecol. Evol., 3(12), 4197–4214.
Abstract: THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.
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Rusu, T., Coste, C. L., Moraru, P. I., Szajdak, L. W., Pop, A. I., & Duda, B. M. (2017). Impact of climate change on agro-climatic indicators and agricultural lands in the Transylvanian Plain between 2008-2014. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 12(1), 23–34.
Abstract: Integrated conservation and management of agricultural areas affected by the current global warming represents a priority at international level following the implementation of the principles of sustainable agriculture and adaptation measures. Transylvanian Plain (TP), with an area of 395,616 ha is of great agricultural importance for Romania, but with an afforestation degree of only 6.8% and numerous degradation phenomena of farmland, it has the lowest degree of sustainability to climate change. Monitoring of agro-climatic indicators and their evolution in between 2008-2014 and the analysis of the obtained data underlie the technological development of recommendations tailored to current favorable conditions for the main crops. Results obtained show that: the thermal regime of the soils in TP is of mesic type and the hydric regime is ustic; multiannual average of temperature in soil at 10 cm depth is 11.40ºC, respectively at 50 cm depth is 10.24ºC; the average yearly air temperature is 11.17ºC; multiannual average of soil moisture is 0.227 m3/m3; Multiannual average value of precipitation is 466.52 mm. During the studied period, compared with data series available (1961-1990; 1901-2000), clear decrease of the average quantities of rainfall especially during critical periods for crops, and increases in average temperatures for the entire year can be noticed. Between June and August the highest temperature difference were recorded, differences of +3.09°C to +3.65°C. There is an increase phenomenon of drought and heat; determined indicators show that most values, 61.11%, are commensurate with a semiarid climate. Aggression peaks are in February-April, July, and October-November, and for the whole period, in 19.43% of the cases are favorable and very favorable conditions for triggering erosion. Recommended agro-technical measures to limit and counteract the effects of drought, as a climatic phenomenon with major risk to agriculture in TP, refer to: i) use of a biological material resistant to water stress and heat; ii) use of management practices favorable for accumulation of, conservation and the efficient use of water from rainfall; iii) operating a system of conservation agriculture based on soil protection and desertification avoidance.
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Challinor, A., Martre, P., Asseng, S., Thornton, P., & Ewert, F. (2014). Making the most of climate impacts ensembles. Nat. Clim. Change, 4(2), 77–80.
Abstract: Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.
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Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., et al. (2013). Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change, 3(9), 827–832.
Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
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