| Records |
| Author |
Rusu, T. |
| Title |
Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Technology Management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania |
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| Year |
2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
5 |
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Sp5-52 |
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| Abstract |
The condition of land degradation in Transylvanian Plain and its effects, being the result of local extreme physical-geographical conditions, susceptible to degradation (evidenced by the erodibility index), which overlap the extreme climatic conditions. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary in order to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), the humidity at the depth of 10 cm, the air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitations. Climate change in the past few years have significantly altered the climatic indicators of the Transylvanian Plain. Precipitations, although deficient in terms of annual amounts, through their regime, have a negative influence on the plant carpet. Pluvial aggressiveness index reveals, for the research period, a first peak of pluvial aggressiveness during the months of February-April, then in July and in autumn, the months of October-November. This requires special measures for soil conservation, both in autumn and early spring, soil tillage measures being recommended which ensure the presence of plant debris and vegetation in early spring but especially in summer and autumn. Climatic indicators determined for the period 2009-2013 point out, in Transylvanian Plain, a semi-arid and mediterranean climate through the rain factor Lang, respectively semi-arid (in the South), semi-humid (in the North) according to the De Martonne index. This climatic characterization requires special technological measures for soil conservation (green curtains, green manure, no-tillage and minimum tillage with mulch layer). The biologically active temperature recorded in the TP demonstrates the need to renew the division of the crop areas reported in the literature. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2167 |
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| Author |
Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
| Title |
Simulating wheat adaptation to climate change in Europe using an ensemble approach with impact response surfaces |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
5 |
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Sp5-51 |
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Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2166 |
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Rötter, R. |
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Crop yield variance and yield gap analysis for evaluating technological innovations under climate change: the case of Finnish barley |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-50 |
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The quest for sustainable intensification of agricultural systems has recently triggered research on determining and closing the gaps between farmers’ actual and potential crop yields that can be obtained under optimal management. This so-called “yield gap” is then taken as a yardstick for indicating the potential of technological innovations in agricultural production. In this paper, we argue that in order to assess risks and opportunities for technological innovations we need extra information on crop yield variances in different production situations.Starting point is to assess farmers’ actual yields using data in sufficient quality and resolutions. Crop simulation models are then applied to quantify crop yield potentials and their variances in a changing environment. Resultant information allows ex ante evaluation of innovations that aim at increasing and stabilizing yields.Here we present this approach for barley cultivation in Finland for observed (1981-2010) and future climate (projected for three time periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085). Mean and median levels, variances and probabilities of simulated potential and water-limited and observed farmers’ yields are generated for two contrasting regions for analysing production risks and assessing the effectiveness of alternative technologies. As farmers show different levels of risk-aversion, which influence their investments in technological innovations, a so-called ‘normal management mode’ is defined. Employing this then shows how future yields and yield variances are likely to develop under normal management. On this basis, we finally identify which future innovations have the potential to maintain or increase barley yields at acceptable risk levels. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2165 |
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| Author |
Powell, J. |
| Title |
Productivity Implications of Extreme Precipitation Events: the case of Dutch Wheat Farmers |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-48 |
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The paper applies a stochastic production frontier model to measure factor productivity and assess the impact of large variations in precipitation on production and the technical efficiency of farms that grow wheat in the Netherlands. A crop level analysis is conducted using an unbalanced panel of 322 farms in 129 regions that grew wheat for at least two years in the period 2002-2013. In general, higher rates of precipitation were found to reduce wheat production. However, those effects were found to be dependent on the type of soil and the month in which the precipitation was realized. Heavy precipitation in December and August were found to decrease efficiency, while increasing efficiency in April. Results show the importance of controlling for local conditions and interaction effects between variables when assessing the implications of extreme weather events. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2163 |
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| Author |
Rivington, M. |
| Title |
AgriMod – The Agricultural Modelling Knowledge Hub |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
5 |
Issue |
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Sp5-49 |
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Agrimod serves as a central knowledge hub for information on agricultural modelling activities worldwide. The vision is to unite the agricultural modelling community by providing a platform whereby models can be showcased, their applications discussed and new collaborations built, streamlining the process by which new modelling activities are developed. Agrimod covers spatial scales from cells to globe, temporal scales from minutes to centuries. There is a limitless coverage of research issues, bounded only by their relevance to agriculture, as the platform is open-ended: details about models, data or case studies can be up-dated; issues or concepts can be raised and discussed. The scope is limited only by the willingness of users to participate. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2164 |
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