Records |
Author |
Porter, J.R.; Christensen, S. |
Title |
Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Plant Cell and Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Plant Cell and Environment |
Volume |
36 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
1919-1925 |
Keywords |
Biomass; Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/*physiology; *Models, Biological; Kaya-Porter identity; crop models; deconstruction; resource use efficiency |
Abstract |
This paper is part review and part opinion piece; it has three parts of increasing novelty and speculation in approach. The first presents an overview of how some of the major crop simulation models approach the issue of simulating the responses of crops to changing climatic and weather variables, mainly atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased and/or varying temperatures. It illustrates an important principle in models of a single cause having alternative effects and vice versa. The second part suggests some features, mostly missing in current crop models, that need to be included in the future, focussing on extreme events such as high temperature or extreme drought. The final opinion part is speculative but novel. It describes an approach to deconstruct resource use efficiencies into their constituent identities or elements based on the Kaya-Porter identity, each of which can be examined for responses to climate and climatic change. We give no promise that the final part is correct’, but we hope it can be a stimulation to thought, hypothesis and experiment, and perhaps a new modelling approach. |
Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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0140-7791 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4799 |
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Author |
Prange, S.; Vohland, K.; Conradt, T.; Hattermann, F.F. |
Title |
Klimabedingte Veränderungen der Abflussdynamik von ausgewählten deutschen Fließgewässern und ihre naturschutzfachliche Bedeutung. In: Schutzgebiete Deutschlands im Klimawandel – Risiken und Handlungsoptionen |
Type |
Book Chapter |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
55-69 |
Keywords |
Xc |
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Publisher |
Bundesamt für Naturschutz |
Place of Publication |
Bonn-Bad Godesberg |
Editor |
Badeck, F.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Ellwanger, G.; Hanspach, J.; Ibisch, P.L.; Klotz, S.; Kreft, S.; Kühn, I.; Schröder, E.; Trautmann, S.; Cramer, W. |
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Naturschutz und Biologische Vielfalt |
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Series Volume |
129 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2736 |
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Author |
Hoveid, Ø. |
Title |
What are the risks of food price changes? A time series analysis |
Type |
Report |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
9 C6 - |
Issue |
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Pages |
Sp9-2 |
Keywords |
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Abstract |
It is a widely held belief (IPCC) that climate change bringsmore risks to the worldI Since the start of MACSUR, TradeM has had risk on theagenda, but few results have so far come out. It has beenclaimed though, that there is no evidence for more risk in theglobal wheat market (Steen and Gjølberg 2014) (TradeMworkshop at Hurdalssjøen)I I have myself had the ambition of creating a dynamicstochastic model of the food system in which risk would be anintegral part, but time has been too shortI I have also pointed to methods from finance to reveal insights,and that is the road to be followed here, guided by Bølviken &Benth (2000) Buyer’s risk larger than seller’s risk — due to asymmetricdistribution of returns. Large price jumps are more likely thanequally sized price falls.I Long term positions much more risky than short term ones —as expectedI Agricultural commodities much less risky than crude oilI Price risk are related to volatility, and their changes over timewill have similar causal explanationsI Risks of producers and consumers of agricultural commoditieswill to some extent be related to the price risk, and also totheir portfolios and the co-variance between returns |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4831 |
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Author |
Porter, J.R.; Xie, L.; Challinor, A.J.; Cochrane, K.; Howden, S.M.; Iqbal, M.M.; Lobell, D.B.; Travasso, M.I. |
Title |
Food security and food production systems |
Type |
Book Chapter |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
485-533 |
Keywords |
CropM |
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Publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
Place of Publication |
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA |
Editor |
Field, C.B.; Barros, V.R.; Dokken, D.J.; Mach, K.J.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Bilir, T.E.; Chatterjee, M.; Ebi, K.L.; Estrada, Y.O.; Genova, R.C.; Girma, B.; Kissel, E.S.; Levy, A.N.; MacCracken, S.; Mastrandrea, P.R.; White, L.L. |
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Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) |
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Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vuln |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2734 |
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Author |
Rosenzweig, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Müller, C.; Arneth, A.; Boote, K.J.; Folberth, C.; Glotter, M.; Khabarov, N.; Neumann, K.; Piontek, F.; Pugh, T.A.; Schmid, E.; Stehfest, E.; Yang, H.; Jones, J.W. |
Title |
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
Volume |
111 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
3268-3273 |
Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/statistics & numerical data; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Geography; *Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen/*analysis; Risk Assessment; Temperature; AgMIP; Isi-mip; agriculture; climate impacts; food security |
Abstract |
Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking) |
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CropM |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4801 |
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