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Author |
Fan, F.; Henriksen, C.B.; Porter, J. |
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Title |
Long-term effects of conversion to organic farming on ecosystem services – a model simulation case study and on-farm case study in Denmark |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems |
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Volume |
42 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages  |
504-529 |
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Keywords |
Long-term; conversion; economic value; ecosystem services; organic farming; agricultural policytrade-offs; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Former Arable Soils; Daisy Model; Crop; Production; Conventional Agriculture; Straw Incorporation; Production; Systems; Nitrogen Dynamics; Climate-Change; Water-Balance |
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Abstract |
Organic agriculture aims to produce food while establishing an ecological balance to augment ecosystem services (ES) and has been rapidly expanding in the world since the 1980s. Recently, however, in several European countries, including Denmark, organic farmers have converted back to conventional farming. Hence, understanding how agricultural ES are affected by the number of years since conversion to organic farming is imperative for policy makers to guide future agricultural policy. In order to investigate the long-term effects of conversion to organic farming on ES we performed i) a model simulation case study by applying the Daisy model to simulate 14 different conversion scenarios for a Danish farm during a 65 year period with increasing number of years under organic farming, and ii) an on-farm case study in Denmark with one conventional farm, one organic farm under conversion, and three organic farms converted 10, 15 and 58 years ago, respectively. Both the model simulation case study and the on-farm case study showed that non-marketable ES values increased with increasing number of years under organic farming. Trade-offs between marketable and non-marketable ES were not evident, since also marketable ES values generally showed an increasing trend, except when the price difference between organic and conventional products in the model simulation study was the smallest, and when an alfalfa pre-crop in the on-farm case study resulted in a significantly higher level of plant available nitrogen, which boosted the yield and the associated marketable ES of the subsequent winter rye crop. These results indicate a possible benefit of preserving long-term organic farms and could be used to argue for agricultural policy interventions to offset further reduction in the number of organic farms or the land area under organic farming. |
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2018-05-03 |
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English |
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2168-3565 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5198 |
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Author |
Gutzler, C.; Helming, K.; Balla, D.; Dannowski, R.; Deumlich, D.; Glemnitz, M.; Knierim, A.; Mirschel, W.; Nendel, C.; Paul, C.; Sieber, S.; Stachow, U.; Starick, A.; Wieland, R.; Wurbs, A.; Zander, P. |
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Title |
Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Indicators |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Indicators |
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Volume |
48 |
Issue |
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Pages |
505-517 |
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Keywords |
scenarios; impact assessment; agricultural intensification; land use change; irrigation; bioenergy; social and environmental indicators; climate-change; landscape; model |
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Abstract |
Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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1470-160x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4561 |
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Author |
Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Levermann, A. |
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Title |
Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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Volume |
4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
540-541 |
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Keywords |
elevated CO2; human-nutrition; climate-change; carbon; face |
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Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food. |
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1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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Editorial Material |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4537 |
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Author |
Bellocchi, G.; Rivington, M.; Matthews, K.; Acutis, M. |
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Title |
Deliberative processes for comprehensive evaluation of agroecological models. A review |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agronomy for Sustainable Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agron. Sust. Developm. |
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Volume |
35 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
589-605 |
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Keywords |
component-oriented programing; deliberative approach; modeling; model evaluation; multiple metrics; stakeholders; decision-support-systems; environmental-models; performance evaluation; groundwater models; farming systems; climate-change; irene-dll; simulation; validation; integration |
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The use of biophysical models in agroecology has increased in the last few decades for two main reasons: the need to formalize empirical knowledge and the need to disseminate model-based decision support for decision makers (such as farmers, advisors, and policy makers). The first has encouraged the development and use of mathematical models to enhance the efficiency of field research through extrapolation beyond the limits of site, season, and management. The second reflects the increasing need (by scientists, managers, and the public) for simulation experimentation to explore options and consequences, for example, future resource use efficiency (i.e., management in sustainable intensification), impacts of and adaptation to climate change, understanding market and policy responses to shocks initiated at a biophysical level under increasing demand, and limited supply capacity. Production concerns thus dominate most model applications, but there is a notable growing emphasis on environmental, economic, and policy dimensions. Identifying effective methods of assessing model quality and performance has become a challenging but vital imperative, considering the variety of factors influencing model outputs. Understanding the requirements of stakeholders, in respect of model use, logically implies the need for their inclusion in model evaluation methods. We reviewed the use of metrics of model evaluation, with a particular emphasis on the involvement of stakeholders to expand horizons beyond conventional structured, numeric analyses. Two major topics are discussed: (1) the importance of deliberative processes for model evaluation, and (2) the role computer-aided techniques may play to integrate deliberative processes into the evaluation of agroecological models. We point out that (i) the evaluation of agroecological models can be improved through stakeholder follow-up, which is a key for the acceptability of model realizations in practice, (ii) model credibility depends not only on the outcomes of well-structured, numerically based evaluation, but also on less tangible factors that may need to be addressed using complementary deliberative processes, (iii) comprehensive evaluation of simulation models can be achieved by integrating the expectations of stakeholders via a weighting system of preferences and perception, (iv) questionnaire-based surveys can help understand the challenges posed by the deliberative process, and (v) a benefit can be obtained if model evaluation is conceived in a decisional perspective and evaluation techniques are developed at the same pace with which the models themselves are created and improved. Scientific knowledge hubs are also recognized as critical pillars to advance good modeling practice in relation to model evaluation (including access to dedicated software tools), an activity which is frequently neglected in the context of time-limited framework programs. |
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1774-0746 1773-0155 |
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Review |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4551 |
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Author |
Van Oijen, M.; Höglind, M. |
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Title |
Toward a Bayesian procedure for using process-based models in plant breeding, with application to ideotype design |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Euphytica |
Abbreviated Journal |
Euphytica |
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Volume |
207 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
627-643 |
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Keywords |
BASGRA; cold tolerance; genotype-environment interaction; plant breeding; process-based modelling; yield stability; grassland productivity; timothy regrowth; climate-change; water-deficit; forest models; late blight; leaf-area; calibration; growth; tolerance |
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Process-based grassland models (PBMs) simulate growth and development of vegetation over time. The models tend to have a large number of parameters that represent properties of the plants. To simulate different cultivars of the same species, different parameter values are required. Parameter differences may be interpreted as genetic variation for plant traits. Despite this natural connection between PBMs and plant genetics, there are only few examples of successful use of PBMs in plant breeding. Here we present a new procedure by which PBMs can help design ideotypes, i.e. virtual cultivars that optimally combine properties of existing cultivars. Ideotypes constitute selection targets for breeding. The procedure consists of four steps: (1) Bayesian calibration of model parameters using data from cultivar trials, (2) Estimating genetic variation for parameters from the combination of cultivar-specific calibrated parameter distributions, (3) Identifying parameter combinations that meet breeding objectives, (4) Translating model results to practice, i.e. interpreting parameters in terms of practical selection criteria. We show an application of the procedure to timothy (Phleum pratense L.) as grown in different regions of Norway. |
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2016-10-31 |
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English |
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0014-2336 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4820 |
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