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Sharif, B., Mankowski, D., Kersebaum, K. C., Trnka, M., Schelde, K., & Olsesen, J. E. (2015). Empirical analysis on crop-weather relationships (Vol. 6).
Abstract: There have been several studies, where process-based crop models are developed, used and compared in order to project crop production and corresponding model uncertainties under climate change. Despite many advances in this field, there are some correlations between climate variables and crop growth, such as pest and diseases, that is often absent in process-based models. Such relationships can be simulated using empirical models. In this study, several statistical techniques were applied on winter oilseed rape data collected in some European countries. The empirical models were then used to predict yield of winter oilseed rape in the field experiments during more than 20 years, up to 2013. Results suggest that newly developed regression techniques such as shrinkage methods work well both in yield projections and finding the influential climatic variables. Many of regression techniques agree in terms of yield prediction; however, choice of significant climate variables is rather sensitive to the choice of regression technique. No Label
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Janssen, S., Houtkamp, J., De Groot, H., & Schils, R. (2015). Online web tool for data visualization (Vol. 6).
Abstract: This deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data, with the focus on providing a web tool for visualization of model output. It was decided early on that not a specific MACSUR web tool would be developed as part of MACSUR for phase 1, and mostly results would be visualized in other available tools, such as the Global Yield Gap Atlas, which are recognised resources for visualizations. Only in relationship to the MACSUR Geonetwork data catalog hosted at Aarhus University some developments where started. Operationally speaking, most data was still being generated during phase 1, so there was not enough to visualize on specific websites and partners did not commit financial resources to their development, and only in kind was available. No Label
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Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K., Christian,, & Olesen, J. E. (2015). Description of the compiled experimental data available in the MACSUR CropM database (Vol. 6).
Abstract: The input data necessary for crop model simulations and data for their calibration/validation (and thus requirements for observations and measurements in suitable experiments) have been collected through out the project together with data for additional analysis of abiotic factors influencing yields. A list of possible dataset was collated in the first year of project however very few of the existing datasets were found usable for the crop model simulation as they fell short of the requirements defined in the part 2.3. However database has been populated as planned with the results of the ongoing MACSUR studies and will serve in the same way for the MACSUR 2 duration. No Label
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Bindi, M., Palosuo, T., Trnka, M., & Semenov, M. A. (2015). Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security INTRODUCTION. Clim. Res., 65, 3–5.
Abstract: Process-based crop models that synthesise the latest scientific understanding of biophysical processes are currently the primary scientific tools available to assess potential impacts of climate change on crop production. Important obstacles are still present, however, and must be overcome for improving crop modelling application in integrated assessments of risk, of sustainability and of crop-production resilience in the face of climate change (e.g. uncertainty analysis, model integration, etc.). The research networks MACSUR and AGMIP organised the CropM International Symposium and Workshop in Oslo, on 10-12 February 2014, and present this CR Special, discussing the state-of-the-art-as well as future perspectives-of crop modelling applications in climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector.
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Del Prado, A., Van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A., Chadwick, D., Misselbrook, T., Sandars, D., Audsley, E., et al. (2015). Synergies between mitigation and adaptation to Climate Change in grassland-based farming systems (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Climate change mitigation and adaptation have generally been considered in separate settings for both scientific and policy viewpoints. Recently, it has been stressed (e.g. by the latest IPCC reports) the importance to consider both mitigation and adaptation from land management together. To date, although there is already large amount of studies considering climate mitigation and adaptation in relation to grassland-based systems, there are no studies that analyse the potential synergies and tradeoffs for the main climate change mitigation and adaptation measures within the current European Policy context. This paper reviews which mitigation and adaptation measures interact with each other and how, and it explores the potential limitations and strengths of the different policy instruments that may have an effect in European grassland-based livestock systems. No Label
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