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Author Lotze-Campen, H.; Verburg, P.H.; Popp, A.; Lindner, M.; Verkerk, P.J.; Moiseyev, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Helming, J.; Tabeau, A.; Schulp, C.J.E.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Lavalle, C.; e Silva, F.B.; Walz, A.; Bodirsky, B. url  doi
openurl 
  Title A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways Type Journal Article
  Year 2018 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change  
  Volume 18 Issue 3 Pages (down) 751-762  
  Keywords Land use change; Integrated modelling; Cross-scale interaction; Nature protection; Impact assessment  
  Abstract Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium  
  Area TradeM Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5004  
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Author Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Carter, T.R.; Harrison, P.A.; Rounsevell, M. doi  openurl
  Title Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change  
  Volume 19 Issue 3 Pages (down) 711-721  
  Keywords Adaptive capacity; Limits; Water; Land; Decision making; Integrated assessment; Land-Cover Change; Global Change; River-Basin; Integrated Assessment; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Variability; Precautionary; Agriculture; Management  
  Abstract Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.  
  Address 2019-04-27  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5220  
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Author Gutzler, C.; Helming, K.; Balla, D.; Dannowski, R.; Deumlich, D.; Glemnitz, M.; Knierim, A.; Mirschel, W.; Nendel, C.; Paul, C.; Sieber, S.; Stachow, U.; Starick, A.; Wieland, R.; Wurbs, A.; Zander, P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Ecological Indicators Abbreviated Journal Ecological Indicators  
  Volume 48 Issue Pages (down) 505-517  
  Keywords scenarios; impact assessment; agricultural intensification; land use change; irrigation; bioenergy; social and environmental indicators; climate-change; landscape; model  
  Abstract Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1470-160x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4561  
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Author Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Sławiński, C.; Baranowski, P.; Żarski, W. url  openurl
  Title Impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Acta Agrophysica Abbreviated Journal Acta Agrophysica  
  Volume 21 Issue 4 Pages (down) 415-431  
  Keywords agricultural economics; agriculture; climate change; crop production; integrating assessments  
  Abstract The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce.  
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  Notes CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4619  
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Author Eza, U.; Shtiliyanova, A.; Borras, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Carrère, P.; Martin, R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title An open platform to assess vulnerabilities to climate change: An application to agricultural systems Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Ecological Informatics Abbreviated Journal Ecological Informatics  
  Volume 30 Issue Pages (down) 389-396  
  Keywords climate change; grasslands; modeling platform; vulnerability assessment; pasture simulation-model; software component; solar-radiation; crop production; change impacts; adaptation; indicator; makers  
  Abstract Numerous climate futures are now available from global climate models. Translation of climate data such as precipitation and temperatures into ecologically meaningful outputs for managers and planners is the next frontier. We describe a model-based open platform to assess vulnerabilities of agricultural systems to climate change on pixel-wise data. The platform includes a simulation modeling engine and is suited to work with NetCDF format of input and output files. In a case study covering a region (Auvergne) in the Massif Central of France, the platform is configured to characterize climate (occurrence of arid conditions in historical and projected climate records), soils and human management, and is then used to assess the vulnerability to climate change of grassland productivity (downscaled to a fine scale). We demonstrate how using climate time series, and process-based simulations vulnerabilities can be defined at fine spatial scales relevant to farmers and land managers, and can be incorporated into management frameworks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1574-9541 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4708  
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