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Author Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P.
Title Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change
Volume Issue Pages (up) in press
Keywords land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services
Abstract Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.
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ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4996
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Author Sinabell, F.; Schönhart, M.; Schmid, E.
Title Austrian Agriculture 2010-2050. Quantitative Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Measures. An analysis of the scenarios WEM, WAM, WAM+ and a sensitivity analysis of scenario WEM Type Report
Year 2015 Publication Studie des Österreichischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamts Abbreviated Journal
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Publisher Place of Publication Vienna, Austria Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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Notes TradeM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5017
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Author Fodor, N.; Foskolos, A.; Topp, C.F.E.; Moorby, J.; Pásztor, L.; Foyer, C.
Title Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress related impact of climate change onthe milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
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Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title Environmental Research Letters
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Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5021
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Author Montesino-San Martin, M.; Wallach, D.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.
Title Quantifying data requirements in crop models; applying the learning curve approach to winter wheat phenology models Type Manuscript
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Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5023
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Author Sinabell, F.; Heinschink, K.; Url, T.
Title Margin Insurance in Agriculture – a micro simulation approach of wheat and hog production in Austria Type Manuscript
Year Publication Tagungsband der 57. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V. (GEWISOLA) und 27. Jahrestagung der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie (ÖGA) “Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft zwischen Ressourcenef Abbreviated Journal
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Area Expedition Conference 2017-09-13 to 2017-09-15, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany
Notes TradeM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5024
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