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Angulo, C.; Rötter, R.; Trnka, M.; Pirttioja, N.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Characteristic ‘fingerprints’ of crop model responses to weather input data at different spatial resolutions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
49 |
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Pages  |
104-114 |
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Keywords |
crop model; weather data resolution; aggregation; yield distribution; climate-change scenarios; areal unit problem; simulation-model; winter-wheat; system model; impacts; europe; yield; productivity; precipitation |
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Abstract |
Crop growth simulation models are increasingly used for regionally assessing the effects of climate change and variability on crop yields. These models require spatially and temporally detailed, location-specific, environmental (weather and soil) and management data as inputs, which are often difficult to obtain consistently for larger regions. Aggregating the resolution of input data for crop model applications may increase the uncertainty of simulations to an extent that is not well understood. The present study aims to systematically analyse the effect of changes in the spatial resolution of weather input data on yields simulated by four crop models (LINTUL-SLIM, DSSAT-CSM, EPIC and WOFOST) which were utilized to test possible interactions between weather input data resolution and specific modelling approaches representing different degrees of complexity. The models were applied to simulate grain yield of spring barley in Finland for 12 years between 1994 and 2005 considering five spatial resolutions of daily weather data: weather station (point) and grid-based interpolated data at resolutions of 10 km x 10 km; 20 km x 20 km; 50 km x 50 km and 100 km x 100 km. Our results show that the differences between models were larger than the effect of the chosen spatial resolution of weather data for the considered years and region. When displaying model results graphically, each model exhibits a characteristic ‘fingerprint’ of simulated yield frequency distributions. These characteristic distributions in response to the inter-annual weather variability were independent of the spatial resolution of weather input data. Using one model (LINTUL-SLIM), we analysed how the aggregation strategy, i.e. aggregating model input versus model output data, influences the simulated yield frequency distribution. Results show that aggregating weather data has a smaller effect on the yield distribution than aggregating simulated yields which causes a deformation of the model fingerprint. We conclude that changes in the spatial resolution of weather input data introduce less uncertainty to the simulations than the use of different crop models but that more evaluation is required for other regions with a higher spatial heterogeneity in weather conditions, and for other input data related to soil and crop management to substantiate our findings. Our results provide further evidence to support other studies stressing the importance of using not just one, but different crop models in climate assessment studies. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4598 |
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Weindl, I.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Muller, C.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenoder, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Schaphoff, S.; Popp, A. |
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Title |
Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
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47 |
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Pages |
121-132 |
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Keywords |
Livestock; Productivity; Dietary changes; Consumptive water use; Water scarcity; Water resources; Climate-Change Mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Global Vegetation; Model; Land-Use; Comprehensive Assessment; Fresh-Water; Systems; Requirements; Irrigation; Carbon |
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Abstract |
Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand-and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshWater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km(3) yr(-1)). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19-36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26-69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies. |
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2018-01-08 |
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0959-3780 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5183 |
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Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; Vries, W. de; Gaiser, T.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on European crop yields: Do we need to consider nitrogen limitation |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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71 |
Issue |
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123-134 |
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Keywords |
Climate impact assessment; Nitrogen limitation; European crop yields; SIMPLACE Crop modelling framework; model calibration; winter-wheat; scale; co2; productivity; agriculture; strategies; scenarios; systems; growth |
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Global climate impact studies with crop models suggest that including nitrogen and water limitation causes greater negative climate change impacts on actual yields compared to water-limitation only. We simulated water limited and nitrogen water limited yields across the EU-27 to 2050 for six key crops with the SIMPLACE<LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT> model to assess how important consideration of nitrogen limitation is in climate impact studies for European cropping systems. We further investigated how crop nitrogen use may change under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that inclusion of nitrogen limitation hardly changed crop yield response to climate for the spring-sown crops considered (grain maize, potato, and sugar beet). However, for winter-sown crops (winter barley, winter rapeseed and winter wheat), simulated impacts to 2050 were more negative when nitrogen limitation was considered, especially with high levels of water stress. Future nitrogen use rates are likely to decrease due to climate change for spring-sown crops, largely in parallel with their yields. These results imply that climate change impact studies for winter-sown crops should consider N-fertilization. Specification of future N fertilization rates is a methodological challenge that is likely to need integrated assessment models to address. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4726 |
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De Pascale, S.; Maggio, A.; Orsini, F.; Stanghellini, C.; Heuvelink, E. |
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Growth response and radiation use efficiency in tomato exposed to short-term and long-term salinized soils |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Scientia Horticulturae |
Abbreviated Journal |
Scientia Horticulturae |
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189 |
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139-149 |
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Keywords |
Leaf osmotic adjustment; Stomatal resistance; Leaf water potential; Light; Salt stress; RUE; physiological-response; salt tolerance; drought stress; water-use; yield; nitrogen; interception; productivity; leaf; photosynthesis |
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Farmlands are increasingly exposed to degradation phenomena associated to climate change and agricultural practices, including irrigation. It is estimated that about 20% of the world’s irrigated land is salt affected. In this paper we aimed at evaluating the effect of seasonal and multiannual soil satinization on growth, yield, and radiation use efficiency of tomato in open field. Two field experiments were carried out at the Experimental Station of the University of Naples Federico II (latitude 40 degrees 31’N longitude 14 degrees 58’E) (Italy) on tomato during 2004 and 2005 to study the effect of five levels of water salinity: NSC (EC = 0.5 dS m(-1)), SW1 (EC= 2.3 dS m(-1)), SW2 (EC= 4.4 dS m(-1)), SW3 (EC= 8.5 dS m(-1)) and SW4 (EC= 15.7 dS m(-1)) in a soil exposed to one-season salinization (ST = short-term) and an adjacent soil exposed to >20 years salinization (LT = long-term). Plant growth, yield and fruit quality (pH, EC, total soluble solids and the concentration of reducing sugars and of titratable acids), and plant water relations were measured and radiation use efficiency (RUE) was calculated. Increasing water salinity negatively affected the leaf area index (LAI), radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground dry weight (DW) accumulation resulting in lower total and marketable yield. Maximum total and marketable yield obtained with the NSC treatment were respectively 117.9 and 111.0 Mg ha(-1) in 2004 and 113.1 and 107.9 Mg ha(-1) in 2005. Although the smaller leaf area of salinized plants was largely responsible for reduced RUE, we found approximately 50% of this reduction to be accounted for by processes other than changed crop architecture. These may include an increased stomatal resistance, increased mesophyll resistance and other impaired metabolic functions that may occur at high salinity. Remarkably, we found that LT salinized plants had a slightly better efficiency of use of intercepted radiation (RUEIR) at a given EC of soil extract than ST salinized plants indicating that LT salinization, and consequent permanent modifications of the soil physical properties, may trigger additional physiological mechanisms of adaptation compared to ST salinized plants. These differences are relevant in light of the evolution of salinized areas, also in response to climate change. |
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0304-4238 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4557 |
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Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Lorite, I.J.; Mínguez, M.I.; Lizaso, J.I.; Dosio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
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Title |
Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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159-173 |
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Keywords |
climate change; impact; adaptation; maize; crop model; regional climate model; extreme temperature; elevated carbon-dioxide; iberian peninsula; future climate; mediterranean environment; crop productivity; model simulations; pollen viability; european climate; bias correction; change impacts |
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Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme T-max damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%. |
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2016-06-01 |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4738 |
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