| Records |
| Author |
Zhen, L.; Deng, X.; Wei, Y.; Jiang, Q.; Lin, Y.; Helming, K.; Wang, C.; König, H.J.; Hu, J. |
| Title |
Future land use and food security scenarios for the Guyuan district of remote western China |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
iForest |
Abbreviated Journal |
iForest |
| Volume |
7 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages  |
372-384 |
| Keywords |
land-use patterns; scenario analysis; dynamics of land systems modeling; food security; guyuan district; north-central china; cultivated land; dynamics; conversion; policy |
| Abstract |
Government policy is a major human factor that causes changes in land use. Decisions on land management and land-use planning, as well as the analysis and quantification of policy consequences, may greatly benefit from the simulation of the dynamics of land-use systems. In the present study, we predicted land-use changes and their potential impacts on food security in the environmentally fragile Guyuan District, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (north-central China), under the influence of a program to convert sloping agricultural land to conservation uses. Baseline and conservation policy scenarios (2005 to 2020) were developed based on input from local stakeholders and expert knowledge. For the baseline and conservation policies, we formulated high-, moderate-, and low-growth scenarios, analyzed the driving mechanisms responsible for the land-use dynamics, and then applied a previously developed “dynamics of land systems” model to simulate changes in land uses based on the driving mechanisms. We found that spatially explicit policies can promote the conversion of land to more sustainable uses; however, decreasing the amount of agricultural and urban land and increasing grassland and forest cover will increase the risk of grain shortages, and the effect will be more severe under the conservation and high- growth scenarios than under the baseline and low-growth scenarios. The Guyuan case study suggests that, during the next decade, important trade-offs between environmental conservation and food security will inevitably occur. Future land-use decisions should carefully consider the balance between land resource conservation, agricultural production, and urban expansion. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1971-7458 |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4547 |
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| Author |
Bourgeois, C.; Fradj, N.B.; Jayet, P.-A. |
| Title |
How cost-effective is a mixed policy targeting the management of three agricultural N-pollutants |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Assessment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Modelling & Assessment |
| Volume |
19 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
389-405 |
| Keywords |
cost-effectiveness; mixed policy; n-input tax; land use policy; nitrogen pollutants; bioeconomic model; mathematical linear programming; miscanthus; nonpoint pollution-control; reed canary grass; biomass production; abatement costs; energy crop; miscanthus; nitrogen; model; efficiencies; instruments |
| Abstract |
This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of a mixed policy in attempts to reduce the presence of three nitrogen pollutants: NO (3), N O-2, and NH (3). The policy under study combines a tax on nitrogen input and incentives promoting perennial crops assumed to require low input. We show that the mixed policy improves the cost-effectiveness of regulation with regard to nitrates, whereas no improvement occurs, except for a very low level of subsidy in some cases, for gas pollutants. A quantitative analysis provides an assessment of impacts in terms of land use, farmers’ income, and nitrogen losses throughout France and at river-basin scale. |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1420-2026 |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4661 |
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| Author |
Sánchez, B.; Rasmussen, A.; Porter, J.R. |
| Title |
Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
20 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
408-417 |
| Keywords |
Climate Change; Oryza/*growth & development; Temperature; Zea mays/*growth & development; cardinal temperatures; climatic change impacts; development; growth; lethal temperatures; maize; rice |
| Abstract |
Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this study, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. |
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Edition |
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1354-1013 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4693 |
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| Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Sławiński, C.; Baranowski, P.; Żarski, W. |
| Title |
Impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Acta Agrophysica |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agrophysica |
| Volume |
21 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
415-431 |
| Keywords |
agricultural economics; agriculture; climate change; crop production; integrating assessments |
| Abstract |
The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce. |
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English |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4619 |
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| Author |
Kim, Y.; Berger, S.; Kettering, J.; Tenhunen, J.; Haas, E.; Kiese, R. |
| Title |
Simulation of N2O emissions and nitrate leaching from plastic mulch radish cultivation with LandscapeDNDC |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Res. |
| Volume |
29 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
441-454 |
| Keywords |
biogeochemical modeling; landscapedndc; N2O; nitrate leaching; plastic mulch; nitrous-oxide emissions; semiarid loess plateau; biogeochemical model; soil-erosion; no emissions; forest soils; dndc model; film mulch; china; field |
| Abstract |
Radish is one of the major dry field crops in Asia commonly grown with plastic mulch and high rates of N fertilization, and potentially harming the environment due to N2O emissions and nitrate leaching. Despite the widespread use of plastic mulch, biogeochemical models so far do not yet consider impacts of mulch on soil environmental conditions and biogeochemistry. In this study, we adapted and successfully tested the LandscapeDNDC model against field data by simulating crop growth, C and N turnover and associated N2O emissions as well as nitrate leaching for radish cultivation with plastic mulch and in conjunction with different rates of N fertilization (465-765 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)). Due to the sandy soil texture and monsoon climate, nitrate leaching with rates up to 350 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) was the dominant reason for overall low nitrogen use efficiency (32-43 %). Direct or indirect N2O emissions (calculated from simulated nitrate leaching rates and IPCC EFind = 0.0075) ranged between 2 and 3 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), thus contributing an equal amount to total field emissions of about 5 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). Based on our results, emission factors for direct N2O emissions ranged between 0.004 and 0.005. These values are only half of the IPCC default value (0.01), demonstrating the need of biogeochemical models for developing site and/or region specific EFs. Simulation results also revealed that changes in agricultural management by applying the fertilizer only to the rows would be an efficient mitigation strategy, effectively decreasing field nitrate leaching and N2O emissions by 50-60 %. |
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0912-3814 1440-1703 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4528 |
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