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Tao, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Höhn, J.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rajala, A.; Salo, T. |
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Title |
Assessing climate effects on wheat yield and water use in Finland using a super-ensemble-based probabilistic approach |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages  |
23-37 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; drought; evapotranspiration; heat stress; risk; uncertainties; northern agriculture; model; weather; variability; precipitation; uncertainty; adaptation; simulation; dynamics; impacts |
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Abstract |
We adapted a large area crop model, MCWLA-Wheat, to winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. and spring wheat in Finland. We then applied Bayesian probability inversion and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to analyze uncertainties in parameter estimations and to optimize parameters. Finally, a super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection system was updated and applied to project the effects of climate change on wheat productivity and water use in Finland. The system used 6 climate scenarios and 20 sets of crop model parameters. We projected spatiotemporal changes of wheat productivity and water use due to climate change/variability during 2021-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results indicate that with a high probability wheat yields will increase substantially in Finland under the tested climate change scenarios, and spring wheat can benefit more from climate change than winter wheat. Nevertheless, in some areas of southern Finland, wheat production will face increasing risk of high temperature and drought, which can offset the benefits of climate change on wheat yield, resulting in an increase in yield variability and about 30% probability of yield decrease for spring wheat. Compared with spring wheat, the development, photosynthesis, and consequently yield will be much less enhanced for winter wheat, which, together with the risk of extreme weather, will result in an up to 56% probability of yield decrease in eastern parts of Finland. Our study explicitly para meterized the effects of extreme temperature and drought stress on wheat yields, and accounted for a wide range of wheat cultivars with contrasting phenological characteristics and thermal requirements. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4667 |
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Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Ahmadi, B.V.; Bonesmo, H.; Østerås, O.; Stott, A.; Harstad, O.M. |
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Title |
Impact of animal health on greenhouse gas emissions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
6 |
Issue |
01 |
Pages |
24-25 |
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Keywords |
dairy; GHG emissions; cull rate; health; HolosNor |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4573 |
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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Giglio, L.; Charfeddine, M.; Dalla Marta, A. |
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Title |
Consumptive use of green and blue water for winter durum wheat cultivated in Southern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agrometeorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Italian Journal of Agrometeorology |
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20 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
33-44 |
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Keywords |
irrigation; water productivity; model simulation; climate change; climate-change scenarios; air co2 enrichment; impact; footprint; irrigation; simulation; yield; agriculture; variability; resources |
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Abstract |
In this study at the regional scale, the model DSSAT CERES-Wheat was applied in order to simulate the cultivation of winter durum wheat (WW) and to estimate the green water (GW) and the blue water (BW) through a dual-step approach (with and without supplemental irrigation). The model simulation covered a period of 30 years for three scenarios including a reference period and two future scenarios based on forecasted global average temperature increase of 2 and 5 degrees C. The GW and BW contribution for evapo transpiration requirement is presented and analyzed on a distributed scale related to the Puglia region (Southern Italy) characterized by high evaporative demand of the atmosphere. The GW component was dominant compared to BW, covering almost 90% of the ETc of WW Under a Baseline scenario the weight BW was 11%, slightly increased in the future scenarios. GW appeared dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the crop cycle, and to the hydraulic characteristics of soil for each calculation unit. After considering the effects of climate change on irrigation requirement of WW we carried out an example of analysis in order to verify the economic benefit of supplemental irrigation for WW cultivation. The probability that irrigation generates a negative or zero income ranged between 55 and 60% and climate change did not impact the profitability of irrigation for WW as simulated for the economic and agro-pedoclimatic conditions of Puglia region considered in this study. |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4653 |
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Author |
Katajajuuri, J.-M.; Pulkkinen, H.; Hietala, S.; Järvenranta, K.; Virkajärvi, P.; Nousiainen, J.I.; Huuskonen, A. |
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Title |
A holistic, dynamic model to quantify and mitigate the environmental impacts of cattle farming |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
6 |
Issue |
01 |
Pages |
35-36 |
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Keywords |
GHG mitigation; LCA; livestock; dynamic farm model |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4680 |
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Author |
Wu, L.; Whitmore, A.P.; Bellocchi, G. |
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Title |
Modelling the impact of environmental changes on grassland systems with SPACSYS |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
6 |
Issue |
01 |
Pages |
37-39 |
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Keywords |
grassland production; dynamic simulation model; primary production; ecosystem respiration |
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2040-4700 2040-4719 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4655 |
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