| Records |
| Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
72 |
Issue |
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Pages  |
287-303 |
| Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
| Abstract |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1364-8152 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
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| Author |
Kriegler, E.; Bauer, N.; Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Leimbach, M.; Strefler, J.; Baumstark, L.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Hilaire, J.; Klein, D.; Mouratiadou, I.; Weindl, I.; Bertram, C.; Dietrich, J.-P.; Luderer, G.; Pehl, M.; Pietzcker, R.; Piontek, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Bonsch, M.; Giannousakis, A.; Kreidenweis, U.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S.; Schultes, A.; Schwanitz, J.; Stevanovic, M.; Calvin, K.; Emmerling, J.; Fujimori, S.; Edenhofer, O. |
| Title |
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
42 |
Issue |
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Pages |
297-315 |
| Keywords |
Shared Socio-economic Pathway; SSP5; Emission scenario; Energy transformation; Land-use change; Integrated assessment modeling |
| Abstract |
Highlights • The SSP5 scenarios mark the upper end of the scenario literature in fossil fuel use, food demand, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. • The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). • An investigation of mitigation policies in SSP5 confirms high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. • In SSP5, ambitious climate targets require land based carbon management options such as avoided deforestation and bioenergy production with CCS. • The SSP5 scenarios provide useful reference points for future climate change, impact, adaption, mitigation and sustainable development analysis. Abstract This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. |
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0959-3780 |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5005 |
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| Author |
Popp, A.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Stehfest, E.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Dietrich, J.P.; Doelmann, J.C.; Gusti, M.; Hasegawa, T.; Kyle, P.; Obersteiner, M.; Tabeau, A.; Takahashi, K.; Valin, H.; Waldhoff, S.; Weindl, I.; Wise, M.; Kriegler, E.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Fricko, O.; Riahi, K.; Vuuren, D.P. van |
| Title |
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
42 |
Issue |
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Pages |
331-345 |
| Keywords |
Scenarios; Land use; Emissions; Mitigation; Food prices; Integrated assessment; SSP |
| Abstract |
• Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate research, climate impact analysis, biodiversity research and sustainability science. Abstract In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. |
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0959-3780 |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5006 |
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| Author |
Ben Touhami, H.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Bayesian calibration of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to simulate European grasslands under water stress |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Informatics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Informatics |
| Volume |
30 |
Issue |
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Pages |
356-364 |
| Keywords |
Bayesian calibration framework; Grasslands; Pasture Simulation model; (PaSim); integrated assessment models; chain monte-carlo; climate-change; computation; impacts; vulnerability; likelihoods; france |
| Abstract |
As modeling becomes a more widespread practice in the agro-environmental sciences, scientists need reliable tools to calibrate models against ever more complex and detailed data. We present a generic Bayesian computation framework for grassland simulation, which enables parameter estimation in the Bayesian formalism by using Monte Carlo approaches. We outline the underlying rationale, discuss the computational issues, and provide results from an application of the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) to three European grasslands. The framework was suited to investigate the challenging problem of calibrating complex biophysical models to data from altered scenarios generated by precipitation reduction (water stress conditions). It was used to infer the parameters of manipulated grassland systems and to assess the gain in uncertainty reduction by updating parameter distributions using measurements of the output variables. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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| ISSN |
1574-9541 |
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| Notes |
CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4697 |
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| Author |
Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Carter, T.R.; Harrison, P.A.; Rounsevell, M. |
| Title |
Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
19 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
711-721 |
| Keywords |
Adaptive capacity; Limits; Water; Land; Decision making; Integrated assessment; Land-Cover Change; Global Change; River-Basin; Integrated Assessment; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Variability; Precautionary; Agriculture; Management |
| Abstract |
Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate. |
| Address |
2019-04-27 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1436-3798 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5220 |
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