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Lehtonen, H., Palosuo, T., Korhonen, P., & Liu, X. (2018). Higher Crop Yield Levels in the North Savo Region—Means and Challenges Indicated by Farmers and Their Close Stakeholders. Agriculture, 8(7), 93.
Abstract: The sustainable intensification of farming systems is expected to increase food supply and reduce the negative environmental effects of agriculture. It is also seen as an effective adaptation and mitigation strategy in response to climate change. Our aim is to determine farmers’ and other stakeholders’ views on how higher crop yields can be achieved from their currently low levels. This was investigated in two stakeholder workshops arranged in North Savo, Finland, in 2014 and 2016. The workshop participants, who were organized in discussion groups, considered some agricultural policies to discourage the improvement of crop yields. Policy schemes were seen to support extensification and reduce the motivation for yield improvements. However, the most important means for higher crop yields indicated by workshop participants were improved soil conditions with drainage and liming, in addition to improved crop rotations, better sowing techniques, careful selection of cultivars and forage grass mixtures. Suggested solutions for improving both crop yields and farm income also included optimized use of inputs, focusing production at the most productive fields and actively developed farming skills and knowledge sharing. These latter aspects were more pronounced in 2016, suggesting that farmers’ skills are increasingly being perceived as important.
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Mittenzwei, K., Persson, T., Höglind, M., & Kværnø, S. (2017). Combined effects of climate change and policy uncertainty on the agricultural sector in Norway. Agric. Syst., 153, 118–126.
Abstract: Highlights • A framework to study climate and policy uncertainty in agriculture is presented. • Combining both sources of uncertainty has ambiguous effects on agriculture. • Uncertainty needs to be highlighted in modelling tools for policy analysis. Abstract Farmers are exposed to climate change and uncertainty about how that change will develop. As farm incomes, in Norway and elsewhere, greatly depend on government subsidies, the risk of a policy change constitutes an additional uncertainty source. Hence, climate and policy uncertainty could substantially impact agricultural production and farm income. However, these sources of uncertainty have, so far, rarely been combined in food production analyses. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a combination of policy and climate uncertainty on agricultural production, land use, and social welfare in Norway. Output yield distributions of spring wheat and timothy, a major forage grass, from simulations with the weather-driven crop models, CSM-CERES-Wheat and, LINGRA, were processed in the a stochastic version Jordmod, a price-endogenous spatial economic sector model of the Norwegian agriculture. To account for potential effects of climate uncertainty within a given future greenhouse gas emission scenario on farm profitability, effects on conditions that represented the projected climate for 2050 under the emission scenario A1B from the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and four Global Climate Models (GCM) was investigated. The uncertainty about the level of payment rates at the time farmers make their management decisions was handled by varying the distribution of payment rates applied in the Jordmod model. These changes were based on the change in the overall level of agricultural support in the past. Three uncertainty scenarios were developed and tested: one with climate change uncertainty, another with payment rate uncertainty, and a third where both types of uncertainty were combined. The three scenarios were compared with results from a deterministic scenario where crop yields and payment rates were constant. Climate change resulted in on average 9% lower cereal production, unchanged grass production and more volatile crop yield as well as 4% higher farm incomes on average compared to the deterministic scenario. The scenario with a combination of climate change and policy uncertainty increased the mean farm income more than a scenario with only one source of uncertainty. On the other hand, land use and farm labour were negatively affected under these conditions compared to the deterministic case. Highlighting the potential influence of climate change and policy uncertainty on the performance of the farm sector our results underline the potential error in neglecting either of these two uncertainties in studies of agricultural production, land use and welfare.
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Lotze-Campen, H., von Witzke, H., Noleppa, S., & Schwarz, G. (2015). Science for food, climate protection and welfare: An economic analysis of plant breeding research in Germany. Agric. Syst., 136, 79–84.
Abstract: Highlights • We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. • Effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. • Expansion of global agricultural area has been reduced by 1–1.5 million ha. • CO2 emissions have been reduced by 160–235 million tons. • German plant breeding research has an economic value of 10.8–15.6 billion EUR. Abstract We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. In addition to market effects, for the first time also effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. The analysis shows that investments in German plant breeding research in the period 1991–2010 have reduced the global expansion of agricultural area by 1–1.5 million hectares. This has led to reduced CO2 emissions of 160–235 million tons. The economic value generated by plant breeding research, through increased production and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, is estimated at 10.8–15.6 billion EUR in the same period. This can be translated into a social rate of return on research investment in the range of 40–80% per year. Projections for the period 2011–2030 generate a return rate in the range of 65–140% per year. Investments into plant breeding research in Germany are highly profitable from a societal point of view. At the same time, our results show significant under-investments in agricultural research in Germany. These results provide a good justification for policy-makers to reverse funding cuts for public agricultural research over the last decades and to improve institutional conditions for private research, e.g. through better protection of intellectual property rights.
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Mitter, H., Schmid, E., & Sinabell, F. (2015). Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria. Clim. Res., 65, 205–220.
Abstract: Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%.
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Cortignani, R., & Dono, G. (2018). Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy. Environ. Sci. Pol., 81, 26–35.
Abstract: The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration.
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