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Dono, G., Cortignani, R., Doro, L., Giraldo, L., Ledda, L., Pasqui, M., et al. (2013). Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems. Agricultural Systems, 117, 1–12.
Abstract: Short-term perspectives appear to be relevant in formulating adaptation measures to changed climate variability (CCV) as a part of the European Rural Development Policy (RDP). Indeed, short-run CCV is the variation that farmers would perceive to such an extent that a political demand would be generated for adapting support measures. This study evaluates some relevant agronomic and economic impacts of CCV as modelled in a near future time period at the catchment scale in a rural district in Sardinia (Italy). The effects of CCV are assessed in relation to the availability of irrigation water and the irrigation needs of maize. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the impact of key climatic variables on the irrigation water requirements and yields of maize. A three-stage discrete stochastic programming model was then applied to simulate management and economic responses to those changes. The overall economic impact of a simulated CCV was found to be primarily caused by reduced stability in the future supply of irrigation water. Adaptations to this instability will most likely lead to a higher level of groundwater extraction and a reduction in the demand for labour. Changed climate variability will most likely reduce the income potential of small-scale farming. The most CCV-vulnerable farm typologies were identified, and the implications were discussed in relation to the development of adaptation measures within the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of European Union. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Dono, G., Cortignani, R., Doro, L., Giraldo, L., Ledda, L., Pasqui, M., et al. (2013). An integrated assessment of the impacts of changing climate variability on agricultural productivity and profitability in an irrigated Mediterranean catchment. Water Resource Manage., 27(10), 3607–3622.
Abstract: Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.
Keywords: discrete stochastic programming; climate change variability; adaptation to climate change; net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; water availability; epic crops model; economic impact of climate change; precipitation; uncertainty; region; series; yield; model; scale; wheat; gis
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Below, T. B., Mutabazi, K. D., Kirschke, D., Franke, C., Sieber, S., Siebert, R., et al. (2012). Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables. Glob. Environ. Change, 22(1), 223–235.
Abstract: A better understanding of processes that shape farmers’ adaptation to climate change is critical to identify vulnerable entities and to develop well-targeted adaptation policies. However, it is currently poorly understood what determines farmers’ adaptation and how to measure it. In this study, we develop an activity-based adaptation index (AAI) and explore the relationship between socioeconomic variables and farmers’ adaptation behavior by means of an explanatory factor analysis and a multiple linear regression model using latent variables. The model was tested in six villages situated in two administrative wards in the Morogoro region of Tanzania. The Mlali ward represents a system of relatively high agricultural potential, whereas the Gairo ward represents a system of low agricultural potential. A household survey, a rapid rural appraisal and, a stakeholder workshop were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. We found that public investment in rural infrastructure, in the availability and technically efficient use of inputs, in a good education system that provides equal chances for women, and in the strengthening of social capital, agricultural extension and, microcredit services are the best means of improving the adaptation of the farmers from the six villages in Gairo and Mlali. We conclude that the newly developed AAI is a simple but promising way to capture the complexity of adaptation processes that addresses a number of shortcomings of previous index studies.
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Mitter, H., Schoenhart, M., Larcher, M., & Schmid, E. (2018). The Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses (SAER)-framework for exploring perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture. J. Environ. Manage., 209, 286–300.
Abstract: Empirical findings on actors’ roles and responsibilities in the climate change adaptation process are rare even though cooperation between private and public actors is perceived important to foster adaptation in agriculture. We therefore developed the framework SAER (Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses) to investigate perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture at regional scale. In particular, we explore agricultural experts’ perceptions on (i) climatic and non climatic factors stimulating private adaptation, (ii) farm adaption actions, (iii) potential on-farm and off-farm effects from adaptation, and (iv) the relationships between private and public adaptation. The SAER-framework is built on a comprehensive literature review and empirical findings from semi structured interviews with agricultural experts from two case study regions in Austria. We find that private adaptation is perceived as incremental, systemic or transformational. It is typically stimulated by a mix of bio-physical and socio-economic on-farm and off-farm factors. Stimulating factors related to climate change are perceived of highest relevance for systemic and transformational adaptation whereas already implemented adaptation is mostly perceived to be incremental. Perceived effects of private adaptation are related to the environment, weather and climate, quality and quantity of agricultural products as well as human, social and economic resources. Our results also show that public adaptation can influence factors stimulating private adaptation as well as adaptation effects through the design and development of the legal, policy and organizational environment as well as the provision of educational, informational, financial, and technical infrastructure. Hence, facilitating existing and new collaborations between private and public actors may enable farmers to adapt effectively to climate change. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Climate change perception; Private adaptation, Public adaptation; Qualitative analysis; Adaptation stimulus; Adaptation effect; Transformational Adaptation; Adapting Agriculture; Farmers Perceptions; Change Scenarios; Decision-Making; Change Impacts; Land-Use; Vulnerability; Framework; Science
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Cortignani, R., & Dono, G. (2018). Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy. Environ. Sci. Pol., 81, 26–35.
Abstract: The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration.
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