| Records |
| Author |
Wallach, D.; Mearns, L.O.; Ruane, A.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Climatic Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Change |
| Volume |
139 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
551-564 |
| Keywords |
change projections; elevated CO2; uncertainty; wheat; water; soil; simulations; yield; rice; 21st-century; Model ensembles; Crop models; Climate models; Model weighting; Super ensembles |
| Abstract |
Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor. |
| Address |
2017-01-06 |
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| Language |
English |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0165-0009 |
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Article |
| Area |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4933 |
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| Author |
Fan, F.; Henriksen, C.B.; Porter, J. |
| Title |
Valuation of ecosystem services in organic cereal crop production systems with different management practices in relation to organic matter input |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Ecosystem Services |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecosystem Services |
| Volume |
22 |
Issue |
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Pages |
117-127 |
| Keywords |
soil physical-properties; carbon sequestration; microbial biomass; farming systems; nitrogen mineralization; earthworm populations; straw; incorporation; economic valuation; agricultural soils; different tillage; Organic farming; Ecosystem services; Economic valuation; Management; Informed decision making |
| Abstract |
As the degradation of global ecosystem services (ES) continues in the last five decades, maintaining or even enhancing the ES of agro-ecosystem is one of the approaches to mitigate the global ES loss. This study provides the first estimate of an economic valuation of ES provided by organic cereal crop production systems with different management practices in relation to organic matter input (low, medium and high). Our results show that organic matter inputs significantly affect the total ES value on organic cereal crop production systems. The system with high organic matter input has the highest gross total ES value (US$ 1969 ha(-1) yr(-1)), followed by the low organic matter input system (US$ 1688 ha(-1) yr(-1)), and the lowest ES value are found in the medium organic matter input system (US$ 1492 ha(-1) yr(-1)). Organic matter inputs have strong positive relationship with non-marketable ES values, while this relationship was not found in marketable ES values. Monetizing the ES can be used by land managers and policy makers to adjust management practices in terms of organic matter input in cereal production system with a long term goal for sustainable agriculture. |
| Address |
2017-01-12 |
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English |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
2212-0416 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4934 |
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| Author |
Tao, F.; Roetter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.H.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Cammarano, D.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F.; Dambreville, A.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M.; Schulman, A.H. |
| Title |
Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Europ. J. Agron. |
| Volume |
82 |
Issue |
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Pages |
144-162 |
| Keywords |
Water-Use Efficiency; Climate-Change; Nitrogen Dynamics; Systems; Simulation; Wheat Cultivars; Grain Weight; Yield; Growth; Fertilization; Adaptation; Adaptation; Breeding; Climate change; Crop simulation models; Impact; Genotype; Genetic traits |
| Abstract |
Climate change and its associated higher frequency and severity of adverse weather events require genotypic adaptation. Process-based ecophysiological modelling offers a powerful means to better target and accelerate development of new crop cultivars. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L) is an important crop throughout the world, and a good model for study of the genetics of stress adaptation because many quantitative trait loci and candidate genes for biotic and abiotic stress tolerance have been identified in it. Here, we developed a new approach to design future crop ideotypes using an ensemble of eight barley simulation models (i.e. APSIM, CropSyst, HERMES, MCWLA, MONICA, SIMPLACE, Sirius Quality, and WOFOST), and applied it to design climate-resilient barley ideotypes for Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones in Europe. The results showed that specific barley genotypes, represented by sets of cultivar parameters in the crop models, could be promising under future climate change conditions, resulting in increased yields and low inter-annual yield variability. In contrast, other genotypes could result in substantial yield declines. The most favorable climate-zone-specific barley ideotypes were further proposed, having combinations of several key genetic traits in terms of phenology, leaf growth, photosynthesis, drought tolerance, and grain formation. For both Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones, barley ideotypes under future climatic conditions should have a longer reproductive growing period, lower leaf senescence rate, larger radiation use efficiency or maximum assimilation rate, and higher drought tolerance. Such characteristics can produce substantial positive impacts on yields under contrasting conditions. Moreover, barley ideotypes should have a low photoperiod and high vernalization sensitivity for the Boreal climatic zone; for the Mediterranean, in contrast, it should have a low photoperiod and low vernalization sensitivity. The drought-tolerance trait is more beneficial for the Mediterranean than for the Boreal climatic zone. Our study demonstrates a sound approach to design future barley ideotypes based on an ensemble of well-tested, diverse crop models and on integration of knowledge from multiple disciplines. The robustness of model-aided ideotypes design can be further enhanced by continuously improving crop models and enhancing information exchange between modellers, agro-meteorologists, geneticists, physiologists, and plant breeders. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2017-01-20 |
| Corporate Author |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1161-0301 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4935 |
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| Author |
Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Janes, V.; Sandars, D. |
| Title |
Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
| Volume |
151 |
Issue |
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Pages |
126-135 |
| Keywords |
Climate change, Socio-economic change, Impacts, Integrated assessment, Uncertainty; Climate-Change Impacts; Water-Based Sectors; North-West England; Socioeconomic Change; Change Vulnerability; East-Anglia; Adaptation; Policy; Uncertainties; Agriculture |
| Abstract |
The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability. |
| Address |
2017-02-23 |
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| Notes |
LiveM, TradeM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4937 |
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| Author |
Brilli, L.; Ferrise, R.; Dibari, C.; Bindi, M.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Needs on model improvement |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
10 |
Issue |
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Pages |
XC1.1-D |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
The need to answer new scientific questions can be satisfied by an increased knowledge of physiological mechanisms which, in turn, can be used for improving the accuracy of simulations of process-based models. In this context, this report highlights areas that need to be further improved to facilitate the operational use of simulation models. It describes missing approaches within simulation models which, if implemented, would likely improve the representation of the dynamics of processes underlying different compartments of crop and grassland systems (e.g. plant growth and development, yield production, GHG emissions), as well as of the livestock production systems. The following rationale has been used in the organization of this report. We first briefly introduced the need to improve the reliability of existing models. Then, we indicated climate change and its influence on the global carbon balance as the main issue to be addressed by existing crop and grassland (section 2), and livestock (section 3) models. In section 2, among the major aspects that if implemented may reduce the uncertainty inherent to model outputs, we suggested: i) quantifying the effects of climate extremes on biological systems; ii) modelling of multi-species sward; iii) coupling of pest and disease sub-models; iv) improvement of the carry-over effect. In section 3, as the most important aspects to consider in livestock models we indicated: i) impacts and dynamics of pathogens and disease; ii) heat stress effects on livestock; iii) effects on grassland productivity and nutritional values; iv) improvement of GHG emissions dynamics. In Section 4, remarks are made concerning the need to implement the suggested aspects into the existing models. |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4938 |
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