Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., et al. (2013). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 111(9), 3239–3244.
Abstract: We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
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Pirttioja, N., Fronzek, S., Rötter, R. P., & Carter, T. R. (2012). Probabilistic assessment of crop adaptation options under a changing climate..
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Piotr, B., Jaromir Krzyszczak, Cezary Slawinski. (2014). Multifractal analysis of chosen meteorological time series to assess climate impact in field level..
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Sinabell, F. (2016). Yield potentials and yield gaps in soybean production in Austria – a biophysical and economic assessment (Vol. 9 C6 -).
Abstract: context of analysis:• stakeholders. policy relevance: CC and protein crops• research problem:• how large is the yield gap and what can be done• data• approaches• findings• discussion and outlook yield gap analysis is a daunting task• what can be learned• economics matters: prices of crop and other crops• land expansion: more land becoming more marginal• management matters a lot but – not directly observable in data• significant knowledge gaps still there• way forward:• look at other crops• explore options to improve management
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Persson, T., Höglind M, Gustavsson AM, Halling M, Jauhianen L, Niemeläinen O, Torvaldsson G, Virkajärvi P. (2013). Evaluation of the BASGRA timothy model under Nordic conditions..
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