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Hutchings, N.; Weindl, I.; Topp, C.F.E.; Snow, V.O.; Rotz, A.; Raynal, H.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Martin, R.; Holzworth, D.P.; Graux, A.-I.; Faverdin, P.; Del Prado, A.; Eckard, R.; Bannink, A. |
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Does collaborative farm-scale modelling address current challenges and future opportunities |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L1.4-D2 |
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Resources required increasing, resources available decreasing Farm-scale modellers will need to make strategic decisions Single-owner models May continue with additional resources Risk of ‘succession’ problem Community modelling is an alternative Need to continue building a community of farm modellers |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4978 |
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Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Kipling, R. |
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Understanding the potential of existing models to characterize animal health conditions and estimate greenhouse gas emissions |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L2.2-D2 |
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The primary objective of this study was to assess the status and priorities for future development in modelling of the impacts of animal health on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It also aimed to facilitate communication between experimental researchers and modellers by defining a list of parameters that are needed to model livestock health and disease, and the impact of health conditions on GHG emissions. The summary presented here provides a brief overview of ongoing work, which the L2.1/L2.2 partners, with support from the Global Research Alliance Animal Health Network (GRA AHN), is currently developing into a paper for publication in a peer reviewed journal. |
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LiveM |
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4979 |
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Boote, K.J.; Porter, C.; Jones, J.W.; Thorburn, P.J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Hoogenboom, G.; White, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L. |
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Sentinel site data for crop model improvement—definition and characterization |
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2016 |
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Improving Modeling Tools to Assess Climate Change Effects on Crop Response |
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Crop models are increasingly being used to assess the impacts of future climate change on production and food security. High quality, site-specific data on weather, soils, management, and cultivar are needed for those model applications. Also important is that model development, evaluation, improvement, and calibration require additional high quality, site-specific measurements on crop yield, growth, phenology, and ancillary traits. We review the evolution of minimum data set requirements for agroecosystem modeling and then describe the characteristics and ranking of sentinel site data needed for crop model improvement, calibration, and application. We in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), propose to rank sentinel site data sets as platinum, gold, silver, and copper, based on the degree of true site-specific measurement of weather, soils, management, crop yield, as well as the quality, comprehensiveness, quantity, accuracy, and value. For example, to be ranked platinum, the weather and soil characterization must be measured on-site, and all management inputs must be known. Dataset ranking will be lower for weather measured off-site or soil traits estimated from soil mapping. Ranking also depends on the intended purposes for data use. If the purpose is to improve a crop model for response to water or N, then additional observations are necessary, such as initial soil water, initial soil inorganic N, and plant N uptake during the growing season to be ranked platinum. Rankings are enhanced by presence of multiple treatments and sites. Examples of platinum-, gold-, and silver-quality data sets for model improvement and calibration uses are illustrated. |
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Hatfield, J.L.; Fleisher, D. |
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Advances in Agricultural Systems Modeling |
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7 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4980 |
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Lake, I.R.; Jones, N.R.; Agnew, M.; Goodess, C.M.; Giorgi, F.; Hamaoui-Laguel, L.; Semenov, M.A.; Solomon, F.; Storkey, J.; Vautard, R.; Epstein, M.M. |
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Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe |
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2017 |
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Environ Health Perspect |
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Environ Health Perspect |
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125 |
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3 |
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385-391 |
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BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173. |
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0091-6765 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4981 |
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Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges: An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands |
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2017 |
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Agricultural Systems |
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Agric. Syst. |
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152 |
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154-164 |
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0308521x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4982 |
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