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Author |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
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Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
37-50 |
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Keywords |
climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
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Abstract |
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4533 |
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Author |
Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K.; Thomson, A. |
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Title |
Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Earth’s Future |
Abbreviated Journal |
Earth’s Future |
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Volume |
2 |
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Pages |
83-98 |
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Keywords |
integrated assessment; climate impacts; emissions mitigation; representative concentration pathway; land-use; carbon; stabilization; cmip5 |
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Abstract |
This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6W/m(2) in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields. |
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2328-4277 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4531 |
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Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C. |
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Title |
Site-specific impacts of climate change on wheat production across regions of Germany using different CO2 response functions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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52 |
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22-32 |
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climate change; co2 effect; crop yield; water use efficiency; groundwater; modeling nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; carbon-dioxide; assessing uncertainties; agricultural crops; potential impact; enrichment face; elevated co2; soil; simulation |
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Impact of climate change on crop growth, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching in winter wheat production in Germany was assessed using the agro-ecosystem model HERMES with a downscaled (WETTREG) climate change scenario A1B from the ECHAM5 global circulation model. Three alternative algorithms describing the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop growth (a simple Farquhar-type algorithm, a combined light-use efficiency – maximum assimilation approach and a simple scaling of the maximum assimilation rate) in combination with a Penman-Monteith approach which includes a simple stomata conduction model for evapotranspiration under changing CO2 concentrations were compared within the framework of the HERMES model. The effect of differences in regional climate change, site conditions and different CO2 algorithms on winter wheat yield, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching was assessed in 22 regional simulation case studies across Germany. Results indicate that the effects of climate change on wheat production will vary across Germany due to different regional expressions of climate change projection. Predicted yield changes between the reference period (1961-1990) and a future period (2021-2050) range from -0.4 t ha(-1), -0.8 t ha(-1) and -0.6 t ha(-1) at sites in southern Germany to +0.8 t ha(-1), +0.6 t ha(-1) and +0.8 t ha(-1) at coastal regions for the three CO2 algorithms, respectively. On average across all regions, a relative yield change of +0.9%, +3.0%, and +6.0%, respectively, was predicted for Germany. In contrast, a decrease of -11.6% was predicted without the consideration of a CO2 effect. However, simulated yield changes differed even within regions as site conditions had a strong influence on crop growth. Particularly, groundwater-affected sites showed a lower vulnerability to increasing drought risk. Groundwater recharge was estimated to change correspondingly to changes in precipitation. The consideration of the CO2 effect on transpiration in the model led to a prediction of higher rates of annual deep percolation (+16 mm on average across all sites), which was due to higher water-use efficiency of the crops. In contrast to groundwater recharge, simulated nitrogen leaching varied with the choice of the photosynthesis algorithm, predicting a slight reduction in most of the areas. The results underline the necessity of high-resolution data for model-based regional climate change impact assessment and development of adaptation measures. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4527 |
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Kim, Y.; Berger, S.; Kettering, J.; Tenhunen, J.; Haas, E.; Kiese, R. |
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Title |
Simulation of N2O emissions and nitrate leaching from plastic mulch radish cultivation with LandscapeDNDC |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Res. |
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Volume |
29 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
441-454 |
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Keywords |
biogeochemical modeling; landscapedndc; N2O; nitrate leaching; plastic mulch; nitrous-oxide emissions; semiarid loess plateau; biogeochemical model; soil-erosion; no emissions; forest soils; dndc model; film mulch; china; field |
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Radish is one of the major dry field crops in Asia commonly grown with plastic mulch and high rates of N fertilization, and potentially harming the environment due to N2O emissions and nitrate leaching. Despite the widespread use of plastic mulch, biogeochemical models so far do not yet consider impacts of mulch on soil environmental conditions and biogeochemistry. In this study, we adapted and successfully tested the LandscapeDNDC model against field data by simulating crop growth, C and N turnover and associated N2O emissions as well as nitrate leaching for radish cultivation with plastic mulch and in conjunction with different rates of N fertilization (465-765 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)). Due to the sandy soil texture and monsoon climate, nitrate leaching with rates up to 350 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) was the dominant reason for overall low nitrogen use efficiency (32-43 %). Direct or indirect N2O emissions (calculated from simulated nitrate leaching rates and IPCC EFind = 0.0075) ranged between 2 and 3 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), thus contributing an equal amount to total field emissions of about 5 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). Based on our results, emission factors for direct N2O emissions ranged between 0.004 and 0.005. These values are only half of the IPCC default value (0.01), demonstrating the need of biogeochemical models for developing site and/or region specific EFs. Simulation results also revealed that changes in agricultural management by applying the fertilizer only to the rows would be an efficient mitigation strategy, effectively decreasing field nitrate leaching and N2O emissions by 50-60 %. |
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0912-3814 1440-1703 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4528 |
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Klein, D.; Luderer, G.; Kriegler, E.; Strefler, J.; Bauer, N.; Leimbach, M.; Popp, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenöder, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Edenhofer, O. |
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Title |
The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Climatic Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Change |
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Volume |
123 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
705-718 |
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Keywords |
land-use change; bio-energy; greenhouse gases; carbon-dioxide; climate-change; constraints; emissions; economics; storage; costs |
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This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS. |
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0165-0009 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4529 |
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