Records |
Author |
Fleisher, D.H.; Condori, B.; Quiroz, R.; Alva, A.; Asseng, S.; Barreda, C.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Ferrise, R.; Franke, A.C.; Govindakrishnan, P.M.; Harahagazwe, D.; Hoogenboom, G.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Merante, P.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Parker, P.S.; Raes, D.; Raymundo, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Stockle, C.; Supit, I.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Wolf, J.; Woli, P. |
Title |
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
Volume |
23 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
1258-1281 |
Keywords |
|
Abstract |
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
1354-1013 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4968 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Hlavinka, P.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Trnka, M.; Pohankova, E.; Stella, T.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Hoogenbom, G.; Shelia, V.; Nendel, C.; Wimmerová, M.; Topaj, A.; Medvedev, S.; Ventrella, D.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodríguez Sánchez, A.; Takáč, J.; Patil, R.H.; Öztürk, I.; Hoffmann, M.; Gobin, A.; Rötter, R.P. |
Title |
Modelling long term effects of cropping and managements systems on soil organic matter, C/N dynamics and crop growth |
Type |
Report |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
Volume |
10 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
C1.3-D |
Keywords |
|
Abstract |
While simulation of cropping systems over a few years might reflect well the short term effects of management and cultivation, long term effects on soil properties and their consequences for crop growth and matter fluxes are not captured. Especially the effect on soil carbon sequestration/depletion is addressed by this task. Simulations of an ensemble of crop models are performed as transient runs over a period of 120 year using observed weather from three stations in Czech Republic (1961-2010) and transient long time climate change scenarios (2011-2080) from five GCM of the CMIP5 ensemble to assess the effect of different cropping and management systems on carbon sequestration, matter fluxes and crop production in an integrative way. Two cropping systems are regarded comprising two times winter wheat, silage maize, spring barley and oilseed rape. Crop rotations differ regarding their organic input from crop residues, nitrogen fertilization and implementation of catch crops. Models are applied for two soil types with different water holding capacity. Cultivation and nutrient management is adapted using management rules related to weather and soil conditions. Data of phenology and crop yield from the region of the regarded crops were provided to calibrate the models for crops of the rotations. Twelve models were calibrated in this first step. For the transient long term runs results of four models were submitted so far. Outputs are crop yields, nitrogen uptake, soil water and mineral nitrogen contents, as well as water and nitrogen fluxes to the atmosphere and groundwater. Changes in the carbon stocks and the consequences for nitrogen mineralisation, N fertilization and emissions also considered. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
XC |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4976 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Leolini, L.; Moriondo, M.; De Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Spanna, F.; Ramos, M.C.; Costafreda-Aumedes, S.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M. |
Title |
Modelling different cropping systems |
Type |
Report |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
Volume |
10 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
C1.4-D |
Keywords |
|
Abstract |
Grapevine is a worldwide valuable crop characterized by a high economic importance for the production of high quality wines. However, the impact of climate change on the narrow climate niches in which grapevine is currently cultivated constitute a great risk for future suitability of grapevine. In this context, grape simulation models are considered promising tools for their contribution to investigate plant behavior in different environments. In this study, six models developed for simulating grapevine growth and development were tested by focusing on their performances in simulating main grapevine processes under two calibration levels: minimum and full calibration. This would help to evaluate major limitations/strength points of these models, especially in the view of their application to climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Preliminary results from two models (GrapeModel and STICS) showed contrasting abilities in reproducing the observed data depending on the site, the year and the target variable considered. These results suggest that a limited dataset for model calibration would lead to poor simulation outputs. However, a more complete interpretation and detailed analysis of the results will be provided when considering the other models simulations. |
Address |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5033 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Wang, E.; Martre, P.; Zhao, Z.; Ewert, F.; Maiorano, A.; Rötter, R.P.; Kimball, B.A.; Ottman, M.J.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Reynolds, M.P.; Alderman, P.D.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Liu, L.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ripoche, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; Wang, Z.; Wolf, J.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S. |
Title |
The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Nature Plants |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nature Plants |
Volume |
3 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
17102 |
Keywords |
|
Abstract |
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections. Erratum: doi: 10.1038/nplants.2017.125 |
Address |
2017-08-28 |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5173 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodriguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Bindi, M.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Pirttioja, N.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hoehn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. |
Title |
Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
Volume |
159 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
260-274 |
Keywords |
Wheat adaptation; Sensitivity analysis; Crop model ensemble; Rainfed, Mediterranean cropping system; AOCK concept; Iberian Peninsula; Simulation-Model; Change Impacts; Crop; Uncertainty; Ensemble; Europe; Yield; Productivity; Irrigation |
Abstract |
Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T.),[CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Address |
2018-01-25 |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0308-521x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5184 |
Permanent link to this record |