Abstract: Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

Abstract: An existing simulation model of wheat growth and development, Sirius, was evaluated through a systematic model reduction procedure. The model was automatically manipulated under software control to replace variables within the model structure with constants, individually and in combination. Predictions of the resultant models were compared to growth analysis observations of total biomass, grain yield, and canopy leaf area derived from 9 trials conducted in the UK and New Zealand under optimal, nitrogen limiting and drought conditions. Model performance in predicting these observations was compared in order to evaluate whether individual model variables contributed positively to the overall prediction. Of the 1 1 1 model variables considered 16 were identified as potentially redundant. Areas of the model where there was evidence of redundancy were: (a) translocation of biomass carbon to grain; (b) nitrogen physiology; (c) adjustment of air temperature for various modelled processes; (d) allowance for diurnal variation in temperature; (e) vernalisation (f) soil nitrogen mineralisation (g) soil surface evaporation. It is not suggested that these are not important processes in real crops, rather, that their representation in the model cannot be justified in the context of the analysis. The approach described is analogous to a detailed model inter-comparison although it would be better described as a model intra-comparison as it is based on the comparison of many simplified forms of the same model. The approach provides automation to increase the efficiency of the evaluation and a systematic means of increasing the rigour of the evaluation.

Abstract: We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.