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Özkan, Ş.; Vitali, A.; Lacetera, N.; Amon, B.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; de Haas, Y.; Dufrasne, I.; Elliott, J.; Eory, V.; Fox, N.J.; Garnsworthy, P.C.; Gengler, N.; Hammami, H.; Kyriazakis, I.; Leclère, D.; Lessire, F.; Macleod, M.; Robinson, T.P.; Ruete, A.; Sandars, D.L.; Shrestha, S.; Stott, A.W.; Twardy, S.; Vanrobays, M.L.; Ahmadi, B.V.; Weindl, I.; Wheelhouse, N.; Williams, A.G.; Williams, H.W.; Wilson, A.J.; Østergaard, S.; Kipling, R.P. |
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Title |
Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. |
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151 |
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130-144 |
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Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. |
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English |
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0013-9351 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4766 |
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Author |
Olesen, J.E.; Vignjevic, M.; Wollenweber, B. |
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Title |
Modelling adaptation of wheat cultivar to increasing temperatures and heat stress |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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Climate change is expected to lead to yield reductions in cereals due to effects on both growth duration and physiological processes affecting assimilation and translocation to grains. However, some of these negative effects may be alleviated through plant breeding. A pot experiment with selected spring wheat varieties exposed to post anthesis heat stress (35 oC for 5 days) showed that the major factor affecting variety differences in heat tolerance was related to effects on green leaf area duration after heat stress. A field experiment with the same selected spring wheat varieties showed large differences between the varieties in crop development and in biomass. The data were used to calibrate the FASSET and Sirius crop models using a sequenced calibration procedure. Both models simulated crop growth and yield well. A sensitivity analysis with increasing temperature showed declining yields for both models with higher rates of yield reduction at temperature increases above 3oC. The models agreed on the pattern of yield decline between cultivars, with larger yield declines being related to earliness. The FASSET model was further modified to simulate effects of cultivar differences in remobilization of water soluble carbohydrates and effects of post-anthesis heat stress on crop yield. Effects of variation in threshold temperature for heat stress as well as response rate are tested. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5105 |
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Olesen, J.E.; Sharif, B.; Plauborg, F; Yin, X.; Bindi, M.; Doro, L.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, R.F.T.; Giglio, L.; Hoffmann, H.H.M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Iocola, I.; Moriondo, M.; Mula, L.; Roggero, P.P.; Ventrella, D. |
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Title |
Comparison of wheat models and their sensitivity towards tillage and N fertilization with different calibration approaches |
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Conference Article |
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2016 |
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Berlin (Germany) |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4920 |
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Author |
Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.; Christensen, J.H. |
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Title |
Centre for Regional change in the Earth System |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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Centre for Regionalchange in the Earth System (CRES, cres-centre.net) is funded by the DanishStrategic Research Council for the period 2009-2014 and is coordinated by theDanish Meteorological Institute. CRES has established a coordinated researcheffort aiming to improve societal preparedness for climate change, inparticular for Denmark. The overall objective of CRES is to extend knowledge ofand reduce the uncertainties surrounding regional climate change and itsimpacts and thereby support future climate change adaptation and mitigationpolicies. Some of the objectives that also have large synergies with theeffects in the CropM theme of MACSUR are a) to reduce uncertainty surroundingregional climate change and its impacts for the period 2020-2050 by improvingmodel formulation and process understanding; b) identify key changes andtipping points in the regional hydrological system, agriculture, freshwater andestuarine ecosystems caused by changes in seasonality, dynamics and extremeevents of precipitation, droughts, heat waves and sea level rise; c) quantifyconfidence and uncertainties in predictions of future regional climate and itsimpacts, by improving the statistical methodology and substance and byintegrating interdisciplinary risk analyses; d) interpret these results inrelation to risk management approaches for climate change adaptation andmitigation. Studies in CRES of particular interest to MACSUR include a)Estimation on generic crop model uncertainties in projection of climate changeimpacts on wheat year, b) Assessment of uncertainties in projected effects onwater balance, crop productivity and nitrate leaching of changes in land use,climate and assessment models. |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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Series Volume |
3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5059 |
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Author |
Olesen, J.E.; Niemeyer, S.; Ceglar, A.; Roggero, P.-P.; Lehtonen, H.; Schönhart, M.; Kipling, R. |
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Title |
Section 5.3. Agriculture |
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Book Chapter |
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Year |
2017 |
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223-243 |
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European Environmental Agency |
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Copenhagen, Denmark |
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Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016. An indicator-based report |
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EEA Report (1/2017) |
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CropM, LiveM, TradeM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4964 |
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