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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change. Agricultural and Food Science, 24(3), 219–234.
Abstract: Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production.
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Evaluating clover grass as a climate change adaptation measure in agriculture at the sector level (Vol. 4).
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Sector level agricultural development following different adaptations to climate change (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Future crop yields in northern Europe are subject to many factors and uncertainties, according to recent agro-ecological studies. Based on our farm level analysis, we concluded that prices of agricultural products are the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change. They, as well as the policy conditions, affect the level of fertilization and the use of other inputs, land use and the intensity and the volume of agricultural production. We outlined 5 main scenarios of agricultural adaptation in Finland, and used an agricultural sector model to assess the impacts of the 5 scenarios on total production and land use in the whole country and in its four main regions. In the scenarios with unchanged product prices in the real terms, we find that a small increase or decrease in crop yields is possible. Significantly higher yields would require also 20-30% higher prices of crop products. Our sector modeling results suggest that avoiding decreases in crop yields is important for agricultural income in the long-term, even if livestock production in also maintained by national subsidies. Decreasing yields will result in increasing nutrient surplus and most likely in increased nutrient leaching, while increasing crop yields, even slightly, would significantly decrease nutrient surplus and increase farm income. Significant increases in crop yields and prices, however, are required before production clearly increases in Finland. Interestingly, cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, in the case of high future prices. This is explained by the abundant land resources, as well as the high opportunity cost of labor and policy systems maintaining current livestock production. No Label
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Pilot study at North Savo region (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Feed crop cultivation dominates land use in North Savo region where the value of dairy milk and beef production is approx. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production. Grass silage is produced on cultivated grasslands through grass-cereal rotations. There are restricted or no markets for silage. Dairy and beef farms, directly dependent on the quantity and quality of silage, are vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Long-term viability of farming is dependent on the long-term productivity development of feed crop production, and ability to cope with adverse weather conditions, affecting both quality and quantity of feed. Adaptation challenges include more frequent wet and dry conditions, increased pest and disease pressure, and overwintering problems, affecting quantity and quality of grass and cereals harvests. More frequent wet conditions are combined with larger farm size, higher axle loads of heavy machinery, increased risk of soil compaction, and high timeliness costs due to rapidly deteriorating feed quality if not harvested at the right time. Some solutions impose new investments and high costs. Results from bio-physical modeling show a clear need for new cultivars better suited in future climate. Various other solutions discussed with the farmers and extension specialists include improved maintenance of drainage and soil structure, to be promoted by crop rotation, soil improvements such as liming, as well as better crop protection. However, higher grass yields may be realized without considerably increased inter-annual yield variability. Needed long-term investments may thus lead to increased productivity under favorable market and policy conditions. No Label
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Lauwers, L. (2015). Participatory modelling for strategy design on dairy farms (Vol. 5).
Abstract: To comply with complexity in farming and social demands with respect to farming practices, to remain competitive in and resilient to an ever changing decision environment, today’s farm managers need to develop an extensive portfolio of activities, made coherent by an overall strategic vision. This paper focusses on dairy farming, which shows complexity by integrating crop and livestock processes and faces nowadays important challenges from its social and market environment. The aim is twofold: first, what does strategic thinking mean in dairy farming and what kind of strategic decisions are eligible for a sustainable development, second, what kind of methodological framework can be built to support the farmer’s strategic thinking and decision making. The novel strategy exploration implies not only the mere crop-livestock organization alternatives, but also creatively looks for resilience increasing activities that allow for flexible food nonfood substitutions, multiple valorization trajectories and alternative multi-agents arrangements. Concrete examples include agroforestry, alternative nutrient throughputs or composting. The methodological support focusses on four principles: (i) integrative, considering the whole-farm scale, (iii) normative, leading to improved decision making, (iii)participatory, compiling transdisciplinary knowledge and (iv) communicative, using typical farm benchmarking. Findings are brought together from literature, own research experiences on dairy farm management and interaction with stakeholders, amongst other the technical sciences researchers in the MACSUR knowledge hub. No Label
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