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Author  |
Kersebaum, K.C. |
| Title |
Simulating crop rotations and management across climatic zones in Europe – an intercomparison study using fifteen models |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-28 |
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| Abstract |
Process based crop simulation models are widely used to assess crop production under current or future climate conditions. Most studies on climate impacts on crop growth are so far focussed on single crops and single-year simulations. However, it is known that the position of crops within a rotation can influence crop growth significantly due to carry-over effects between seasons. We compared crop models on crop rotation effects from five sites across Central Europe providing in total data of 301 cropping seasons and treatments. Treatments comprised irrigation, nitrogen (N) fertilisation, atmospheric [CO2], tillage, residue management, cover crops and soils. Crop rotations were simulated with 15 crop models as single-year simulations and/or continuous simulations over whole crop rotations in “restricted calibration” runs. Lower RMSE between observed and simulated crop yields were obtained for continuous runs as compared to single-year runs. Relatively low carry-over effects were observed due to equilibration of soil water over winter and high N fertilisation levels. Consistently, a sub-set of models applied to an additional rainfed Mediterranean site reproduced larger carry-over effects of soil water. Irrigation, N supply, cover crops and atmospheric [CO2] showed clearer effects than tillage and crop residue management. Model performance varied distinctly between crops showing the necessity to provide experimental data for model calibration also for less prominent crops. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2143 |
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| Author |
Kersebaum, K.; C, |
| Title |
Results of uncalibrated model runs available (ROTATIONEFFECTS) |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
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D-C1.5 |
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The study ROTATIONEFFECT aims to compare the output of different models simulating field data sets with multi-year crop rotations including different treatments. Data sets for 5 locations in Europe were distributed to 19 interested modeller groups comprising a total of 201 crop growth seasons. In a first step only minimal information for calibration were provided to the modellers. In total 14 modelling teams sent their “uncalibrated” results as single-year calculations and/or calculations of rotation depending on the capability of the model. 7-10 models were capable to run the rotations as continuous runs. Up to 12 models provided single year simulations of at least one crop. Comparing results of models which provided both single year and continuous runs, show a little lower root mean square error for the continuous rotations runs. Cereal crop yields were generally better simulated than tuber/beet yields. Additionally, the models’ response to various treatments (irrigation/rainfed, nitrogen level, CO2 level, residue management/ tillage, catch crops) were compared to observed differences. First indicators of model performance have been developed and presented at international conferences. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2230 |
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| Author |
Kersebaum, K.; C |
| Title |
Model intercomparison for calibrated models |
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Report |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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4 |
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D-C1.6 |
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The study ROTATIONEFFECT aims to compare the output of different models simulating field data sets with multi-year crop rotations including different treatments.Within the first Step (1a2a) data sets (comprising a total of 301 crop growth seasons) for 5 locations in Europe were distributed to 15 interested modeller groups.For this step only minimal information for calibration were provided to the modellers. In total 15 modelling teams sent their “uncalibrated” results as single-year calculations and/or continuous calculations of rotation depending on the capability of the model. Results have been evaluated and the paper submitted (European Journal of Agronomy).Now, within the 2nd step (1b2b) modellers were provided with more information on the crop for the calibration of models. Again, results of calibrated runs were collected.6 models were capable to run the rotations as continuous runs and another set of 6 models provided single year simulations.A first overview of the improvement of predictions due to calibration has been produced. Result files have been uploaded to the web platform for CropM results at Aarhus University (Work package C2 – data management). No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2213 |
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Kersebaum, K.-C.; Wallor, E.; Ventrella, D.; Cammarano, D.; Choucheney, E.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Gaiser, T.; Garofalo, P.; Giglio, L.; Giola, P.; Hoffmann, M.; Laan, M.; Lewan, E.; Maharjan, G.R.; Moriondo, M.; Mula, L.; Nendel, C.; Pohankova, E.; Roggero, P.P.; Trnka, M.; Trombi, G. |
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Comparison of site sensitivity of crop models using spatially variable field data from Precision Agriculture |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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10 |
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Pages |
C1.1-D2 |
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Site conditions and soil properties have a strong influence on impacts of climate change on crop production. Vulnerability of crop production to changing climate conditions is highly determined by the ability of the site to buffer periods of adverse climatic situations like water scarcity or excessive rainfall. Therefore, the capability of models to reflect crop responses and water and nutrient dynamics under different site conditions is essential to assess climate impact even on a regional scale. To test and improve sensitivity of models to various site properties such as soil variability and hydrological boundary conditions, spatial variable data sets from precision farming of two fields in Germany and Italy were provided to modellers. For the German 20 ha field soil and management data for 60 grid points for 3 years (2 years wheat, 1 year triticale) were provided. For the Italian field (12 ha) information for 100 grid points were available for three growing seasons of durum wheat. Modellers were asked to run their models using a) the model specific procedure to estimate soil hydraulic properties from texture using their standard procedure and use in step b) fixed values for field capacity and wilting point derived from soil taxonomy. Only the phenology and crop yield of one grid point provided for a basic calibration. In step c) information for all grid points of the first year (yield, soil water and mineral N content for Germany, yield, biomass and LAI for Italy) were provided. First results of five out of twelve participating models are compared against measured state variables analysing their site specific response and consistency across crop and soil variables. (Main text to be published in a peer-reviewed journal) |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4951 |
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Kässi, P.; Niskanen, O.; Känkänen, H. |
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Farm level approach to manage grass yield variation in changing climate in Jokioinen and St. Petersburg |
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Report |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
Issue |
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Sp3-11 |
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Cattle’s feeding is based on grass silage in Northern Europe, but grass growth is highly dependent on weather conditions. In farms decision making, grass area is usually determined by the variation of yield. To be adequate in every situation, the lowest expected yield level determines the cultivated area. Other way to manage the grass yield risk is to increase silage storage capacity over annual consumption. Variation of grass yield in climate data from years 1961-1990 was compared with 15 different climate scenario models simulating years 2046-2065. A model was developed for evaluating the inadequacy risk in terms of cultivated area and storing capacity. The cost of risk is presented and discussed.In northern Europe a typical farm has storage for roughage consumption of almost one year. In addition, there can be a buffer storage. The extra storage is to be used before and during the harvest season. New harvest will be fed to animals only after the buffer empty. Shortage in the buffer storage is possible to be filled, when the yield exceeds the target level. For risk management, two alternative mechanisms are given: forage buffer and possibility to alter the field area.According to our results, there are no significant adverse effects in the cost of risk and implied farm profitability due to climate change. Selecting the risk management scenario of 30 % grass yield risk turned out to be the least cost solution. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2228 |
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