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Köchy, M. |
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Maps of grasslands in Europe |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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D-L1.3.1 |
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Modelling of climate effects on agriculture and food security at the European scale requires a harmonized spatially, explicit database of European land use. It can be used for scaling results of point models to an area. A recent review of land cover maps focused on the global scale (Köchy, 2010). European land use as a subset of global land use is contained in the product GlobCover representing the year 2009 with a resolution of 0.3 km. A European product is the CORINE data set with a resolution of 100 m and a minimum mapping unit of 25 ha representing the year 2006 (version 16, European Environmental Agency, 2012). For scaling the results obtained for individual points to larger regions one needs fine-grained maps using the same categories as represented by the sample points. The CORINE map of pasture cover (Fig. 1) has the advantage of being very fine-grained and the classification being supervised. The visual differences to coarser maps of cover matched to census (Fig. 4), however, indicate, that none of the existing maps is reflecting reality perfectly. Since MACSUR will likely work with official national statistics it may be preferable to use one of the census-calibrated maps. For a better match, official EU spatial reporting schemes may be used at a grain that ensures data privacy of the land owners. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2257 |
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Author |
Köchy, M. |
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FACCE MACSUR Kickoff-Meeting |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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M-H3.1.0 |
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The FACCE MACSUR kickoff meeting took place 15-16 October 2012 in Berlin, Germany. The date for the meeting was moved from July to October to accommodate the participation of most institutions involved in MACSUR in a sufficiently large meeting place. One hundred and forty-five persons participated in the event. The meeting was organized as a workshop to allow for expanded time for interaction among the participants of the 73 involved institutions. The keynote lectures by Tim Benton (Global Food Security and University of Leeds) and Tim Carter (Finnish Environment Institute – SYKE) set the background by describing the need for assessing future impacts on food security and how to deal with the uncertainty associated with data, models, and projections. In parallel sessions participants discussed the organization of the work in the project and in each Theme, common approaches to answering the questions, selection of scenarios, involvement of stakeholders, and how the results will be presented. The results of the four cross-cutting workshops are documented in separate reports (M-H3.3.1 through M-H3.3.4) and serve as the starting point for more detailed planning over the following months.A post-hoc survey filled in by 75 attendees showed that the workshop had answered many organizational issues. But since the project has only started, many more issues must be discussed and clarified in the coming months, the survey showed. Overall, two thirds of the participants were satisfied with the organization oft he workshop. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2248 |
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Köchy, M. |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A workshop for decisionmakers. Workshop Programme |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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Sp6-0 |
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Local agricultural production is strongly affected by the weather. Climate change is likely to cause increases in extreme weather events, as well as underlying changes in average conditions. If agriculture is to be sustainable and profitable, farmers will need to adapt to these changes. What impacts could climate change have on farming systems across Europe, and how important are they likely to be compared to the impacts of policies?In order to better answer these questions, the FACCE JPI knowledge hub MACSUR, comprising more than 300 researchers in 18 countries, is assessing the current state of the art in the modelling of agricultural systems for food security.At this workshop we invited policymakers and other stakeholders to learn about regional impacts of climate change on European agriculture relative to policies and to inform researchers about the consultation needs of stakeholders. No Label |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2081 |
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Author |
Köchy, M. |
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Title |
FACCE MACSUR Joint Workshops 2015 |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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7 |
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H0.3-M1 |
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XC activities, Hub |
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FACCE MACSUR comprises many different groups whose work contribute to improving the European capacity of modelling agriculture with climate change and providing an assessment of these impacts for stakeholders. Some groups work on methodological issues in a single discipline, others work on cross-disciplinary concepts. The meeting provided an opportunity for the members of the groups to meet for intensive discussions and exchange of ideas, which is not as easily done in phone or video conferences. Various groups also met with each other to agree on work plans and common settings for research. Overall, 105 researchers attended the workshops. For coordinating work with the global program AgMIP, AgMIP’s principle investigator John Antle attended the meeting and, meeting in a video call, coordination teams of MACSUR and AgMIP agreed to continue the successful collaboration in the future. Major overarching outcomes of the meetings were agreements on policy and climate scenarios recommended to be used within MACSUR, development of an approach to quantify effects of extreme climatic events on socio-economic indicators, and closer collaboration among several groups at the level of regional case studies. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2079 |
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Author |
Knox, J. |
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Meta-analysis of recent scientific evidence on climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-30 |
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Projected changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security (Daccache et al., 2014). We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven crops (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 67 original publications from an initial screening of 1424 studies. Whilst similar studies exist for Africa and South Asia (Roudier et al., 2011; Knox et al., 2012), surprisingly, no such comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Our study focussed on the biophysical impacts of climate change on productivity (i.e. yield per unit area) and did not consider ‘food production’ as this is dependent on many ‘non-biophysical’ factors, such as international trade policy and world markets. The data relate to the projected mean yield variations for each crop type, for all crop models, all GCM models and all time slices.For Europe, most studies projected a positive impact on yield; the reported increases largely being due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations enhancing both productivity and resource use efficiencies. Overall, a mean yield increase of +14% was identified, but with large differences between individual crops (e.g. wheat +22%; potato +12%) and regions (e.g. northern Europe +17%; southern Europe +7%). It is important to note that projected yield data were not available for all crops in all regions, so lack of a significant response may in part be due to the absence, or limited number of studies for certain crops and/or regions. Furthermore, the results include all reported yield projections, for all time slices, for all GCM combinations (whether single or ensemble) and for all crop modelling approaches (whether based on simple statistical trends or more complex biophysical modelling approaches). This highlights the magnitude of variability that exists when all possible sources of uncertainty are included. Further statistical analyses were conducted to disaggregate the data by time slice, climate and crop model to identify which factors were likely to contribute most to yield variations and uncertainty.The SR showed that evidence of climate change impacts on crop yield in Europe is extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato but very limited for barley, rice and rye. Interpreting the reported yield observations was compounded by ‘effect modifiers’ or reasons for heterogeneity. These included different emission scenarios and climate ensembles, implicit assumptions regarding crop varieties, the agricultural systems studied, and assumed levels of mechanization and crop husbandry. Despite its limitations, the SR helps identify where further research should be targeted and regions where adaptation will be most needed. It confirms that climate change is likely to increase productivity of Europe’s major agricultural cropping systems, with more favourable impacts in northern and central Europe. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2145 |
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