| Records |
Author  |
Sieber, S.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Jansson, T.; Müller, K.; Tscherning, K.; Graef, F.; Pohle, D.; Helming, K.; Rudloff, B.; Saravia-Matus, B.S.; Gomez y Paloma, S. |
| Title |
Sustainability impact assessment using integrated meta-modelling: Simulating the reduction of direct support under the EU common agricultural policy (CAP) |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Use Policy |
| Volume |
33 |
Issue |
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Pages |
235-245 |
| Keywords |
SIAT; CAP; sustainability; impact assessment; land use change; trade off analysis; model; Netherlands; systems |
| Abstract |
Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N2O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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| Language |
English |
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| ISSN |
0264-8377 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4479 |
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| Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Alghabari, F.; Gooding, M.J. |
| Title |
Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Cereal Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Ceareal Sci. |
| Volume |
59 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
245-256 |
| Keywords |
A, maximum area of flag leaf area; ABA, abscisic acid; CV, coefficient of variation; Crop improvement; Crop modelling; FC, field capacity; GMT, Greenwich mean time; GS, growth stage; Gf, grain filling duration; HI, harvest index; HSP, heat shock protein; Heat and drought tolerance; Impact assessment; LAI, leaf area index; Ph, phylochron; Pp, photoperiod response; Ru, root water uptake; S, duration of leaf senescence; SF, drought stress factor; Sirius; Wheat ideotype |
| Abstract |
Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0733-5210 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Review |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4543 |
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| Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
| Title |
Adapting wheat ideotypes for climate change: accounting for uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
| Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
123-139 |
| Keywords |
sirius wheat model; lars-wg weather generator; downscaling; cmip5 ensemble; impact assessment; stochastic weather generators; earth system model; diverse canadian climates; high-temperature stress; change scenarios; lars-wg; decadal prediction; yield progress; heat-stress; aafc-wg |
| Abstract |
This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for the downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG. For computationally demanding impact assessments, where it is not practical to explore all possible combinations of GCM x RCP, a climate sensitivity index could be used to select a subset of GCMs which preserves the range of uncertainty found in CMIP5. This would allow us to quantify uncertainty in predictions of impacts resulting fromthe CMIP5 ensemble by conducting fewer simulation experiments. In a case study, we describe the use of the Sirius wheat simulation model to design in silico wheat ideotypes that are optimised for future climates in Europe, sampling uncertainty in GCMs, emission scenarios, time periods and European locations with contrasting climates. Two contrasting GCMs were selected for the analysis, ‘hot’ HadGEM2-ES and ‘cool’ GISS-E2-R-CC. Despite large uncertainty in future climate projections, we were able to identify target traits for wheat improvement which may assist breeding for high-yielding wheat cultivars with increased yield stability. |
| Address |
2015-10-12 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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| ISSN |
0936-577x 1616-1572 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4701 |
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| Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Pilkington-Bennett, S.; Calanca, P. |
| Title |
Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
| Volume |
57 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-9 |
| Keywords |
climate change; impact assessment; downscaling; lars-wg; stochastic weather generators; diverse canadian climates; lars-wg; aafc-wg; radiation; impacts |
| Abstract |
Local-scale daily climate scenarios are required for assessment of climate change impacts. ELPIS is a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for Europe, which are based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future projections from 2 multi-model ensembles, CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES. In ELPIS, the site parameters for the 1980-2010 baseline scenarios were estimated by LARS-WG using daily weather from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used in many European agricultural assessment studies. The objective of this paper was to compare ELPIS baseline scenarios with observed daily weather obtained independently from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) data set. Several statistical tests were used to compare distributions of climatic variables derived from ECA-observed daily weather and ELPIS-generated baseline scenarios. About 30% of selected sites have a difference in altitude of > 50 m compared with the CGMS grid-cell altitude that was selected to represent agricultural land within a grid-cell. Differences in altitude can explain significant Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) results for distribution of daily temperature and in t-tests for temperature monthly means, because of the well-known negative correlation between temperature and elevation. For daily precipitation, the KS-test showed little difference between generated and observed data; however, the more sensitive t-test showed significant results for the sites where altitude differences were large. Approximately 11% of sites showed small positive or negative bias in monthly solar radiation, although 86% sites showed > 3 significant t-test results for monthly means. These results can be explained by differences in conversion of sunshine hours to solar radiation used in CGMS and LARS-WG. We conclude that, considering the limitations above, ELPIS baseline scenarios are suitable for agricultural impact assessments in Europe. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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| ISSN |
0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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Article |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4812 |
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| Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. |
| Title |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
| Volume |
62 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
166-180 |
| Keywords |
climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale |
| Abstract |
Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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0906-4702 1651-1972 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4802 |
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