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Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
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Title |
Simulating wheat adaptation to climate change in Europe using an ensemble approach with impact response surfaces |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-51 |
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Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2166 |
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Ruete, A.; Velarde, A.; Blanco-Penedo, I. |
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Eco-DREAMS-S: modelling the impact of climate change on milk performance in organic dairy farms |
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2015 |
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Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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6 |
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01 |
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21-23 |
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dairy; organic; THI; heat stress; milk production |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4679 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Tao, F.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T. |
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Title |
Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Journal of Experimental Botany |
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J. Experim. Bot. |
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66 |
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12 |
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3463-3476 |
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Breeding/*methods; Climate Change; *Computer Simulation; Ecotype; Edible Grain/*growth & development; *Models, Theoretical; cereals; climate extremes; crop growth simulation; ensemble modelling; future cultivars; genetic modelling; ideotype breeding; model improvement; model-aided design |
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A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc. During the last decades, crop simulation has become important for supporting plant breeding, in particular in designing ideotypes, i.e. ‘model plants’, for different crops and cultivation environments. In this review we (i) examine the main limitations of crop simulation modelling for supporting ideotype breeding, (ii) describe developments in cultivar traits in response to climate variations, and (iii) present examples of how crop simulation has supported evaluation and design of cereal cultivars for future conditions. An early success story for rice demonstrates the potential of crop simulation modelling for ideotype breeding. Combining conventional crop simulation with new breeding methods and genetic modelling holds promise to accelerate delivery of future cereal cultivars for different environments. Robustness of model-aided ideotype design can further be enhanced through continued improvements of simulation models to better capture effects of extremes and the use of multi-model ensembles. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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Review |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4804 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Pirttioja, N.K.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.; Palosuo, T.; et al. |
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Title |
Impact response surface analysis of temperature and precipitation for wheat along a European transect |
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2015 |
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Minneapolis (U.S.A) |
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AgMIP and partners session at tripartite meetings (ASA-CSSA-SSA) at Minneapolis/USA, 2015-11-15 to 2015-11-17, Minneapolis |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2769 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.K.; Palosuo, T.; Kassie, B.T.; Paff, K.; Tao, F.; Chen, Y.; Asseng, S.; et al. |
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Yield gap and variability analysis for different aro-technologies for maize and wheat (YGV study) |
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2015 |
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CropM; |
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Ithaca (U.S.A.) |
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2nd Global Food Security Conference, 2015-10-10- to 2015-10-15, Ithaca |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2770 |
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