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Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
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Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
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Volume |
5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
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Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
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Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
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2020-02-14 |
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2375-2548 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5227 |
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Author |
Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Wimmerová, M.; Pohanková, E.; Rötter, R.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Semenov, M. |
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Title |
Paper on model responses to selected adverse weather conditions |
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Report |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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Pages |
C1.2-D |
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Based on the Trnka et al. (2015) study that indicated that heat and drought will be the most important stress factors for most of the European what area the further effort focused on these two extremes. The crop model HERMES has been tested for its ability to replicate correctly drought stress, heat stress and combination of both stresses. While data on the drought stress were available for both field and growth chambers, heat stress and its combination with heat stress was available only for the growth chambers. The modified version of the HERMES crop model was developed by Dr. Kersebaum and is being currently prepared for the journal paper publication. |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4954 |
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Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.; Christian,; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Description of the compiled experimental data available in the MACSUR CropM database |
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Report |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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Pages |
D-C2.1 |
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The input data necessary for crop model simulations and data for their calibration/validation (and thus requirements for observations and measurements in suitable experiments) have been collected through out the project together with data for additional analysis of abiotic factors influencing yields. A list of possible dataset was collated in the first year of project however very few of the existing datasets were found usable for the crop model simulation as they fell short of the requirements defined in the part 2.3. However database has been populated as planned with the results of the ongoing MACSUR studies and will serve in the same way for the MACSUR 2 duration. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2090 |
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Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Žalud, Z.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
637-643 |
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Keywords |
scenarios; increase; models; variability; responses; extremes; impacts; shifts |
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Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981-2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies. |
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1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4545 |
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Van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Bellocchi, G.; Hutchings, N.; Olesen, J.; Saetnan, E. |
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AnimalChange |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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The EU-FP7 project AnimalChange (AN Integration of Mitigation and Adaptation options for sustainable Livestock production under climate CHANGE, http://www.animalchange.eu, 2011-2015) addresses mitigation and adaptation options and provides scientific guidance for their integration in sustainable development pathways for livestock production under climate change in Europe, Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. The project provides insights, innovations, tools and models for livestock production incorporating socio-economic and environmental (particularly GHG emission) variables. Scenario studies are carried out at scales ranging from animal and pasture, to farm and to region, for given management options. A wide range of livestock production systems is included in the project. The core analytical spine of the project is a series of coupled biophysical and socio-economic models combined with experimentation. This allows exploring future scenarios for the livestock sector under baseline and atmospheric CO2 stabilization scenarios. These scenarios are first constructed and then elaborated and enriched by breakthrough mitigation and adaptation options at field and animal scales, integrated and evaluated at farm scale and finally used to assess policy options and their socio-economic consequences. The modelling results are useful for governments, agricultural and food industry and the agricultural sector (farmers). There are many synergies between the European activities of AnimalChange and those of the LiveM theme of MACSUR, in particular with respect to access to livestock production datasets, dialogue with stakeholders and comparison and integration of grassland and livestock models with crop and socio-economic models in pilot studies at a variety of scales. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5053 |
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