|
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Lehtonen, H.S.; Irz, X. |
|
|
Title |
Impacts of reducing red meat consumption on agricultural production in Finland |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agriculture and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agriculture and Food Science |
|
|
Volume |
22 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
356-370 |
|
|
Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; food demand; greenhouse gas mitigation; agricultural policy; agricultural economics |
|
|
Abstract |
This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agrcultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1795-1895 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4607 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Mitter, H.; Heumesser, C.; Schmid, E. |
|
|
Title |
Spatial modeling of robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Use Policy |
|
|
Volume |
46 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
75-90 |
|
|
Keywords |
climate change impact; adaptation; agricultural vulnerability; portfolio optimization; agricultural policy; agri-environmental payment; adaptive capacity; change impacts; risk-aversion; land-use; ecosystem services; change scenarios; europe; policy; future; water |
|
|
Abstract |
Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is likely to vary considerably between agro-environmental regions. Exemplified on Austrian cropland, we aim at (i) quantifying climate change impacts on agricultural vulnerability which is approximated by the indicators crop yields and gross margins, (ii) developing robust crop production portfolios for adaptation, and (iii) analyzing the effect of agricultural policies and risk aversion on the choice of crop production portfolios. We have employed a spatially explicit, integrated framework to assess agricultural vulnerability and adaptation. It combines a statistical climate change model for Austria and the period 2010-2040, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), and a portfolio optimization model. We find that under climate change, crop production portfolios include higher shares of intensive crop management practices, increasing average crop yields by 2-15% and expected gross margins by 3-18%, respectively. The results depend on the choice of adaptation measures and on the level of risk aversion and vary by region. In the semi-arid eastern parts of Austria, average dry matter crop yields are lower but gross margins are higher than in western Austria due to bio-physical and agronomic heterogeneities. An abolishment of decoupled farm payments and a threefold increase in agri-environmental premiums would reduce nitrogen inputs by 23-33%, but also crop yields and gross margins by 18-37%, on average. From a policy perspective, a twofold increase in agri-environmental premiums could effectively reduce the trade-offs between crop production and environmental impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
0264-8377 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4675 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. |
|
|
Title |
Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
|
|
Volume |
65 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
205-220 |
|
|
Keywords |
Climate change impact; Adaptation; Soybean; EPIC; Common Agricultural Policy; Land use |
|
|
Abstract |
Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
0936-577x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5012 |
|
Permanent link to this record |