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Zavalloni, M., Marconi, V., Viaggi, D., & Raggi, M. (2014). Climate change adaptation: a farm level model to assess investment decisions in water storage. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: One of the potential measures suggested to cope with the changes induced by Climate Change (CC) is the construction of rainwater harvesting reservoirs (Bozzola and Swanson, n.d.). The literature has focused mostly on the water allocation management but it overlooks at the structure of the investment decision. We analyse the investment decision in water storage facilities, for different farming specialization and under different climatic scenarios to assess the option value of the investment. We take an interdisciplinary approach integrating climate, agronomic and economic models. CC effects are assessed by a downscale of the A1B scenario of the IPCC (Tomozeiu et al., 2010). The resulting estimated temperatures and rainfall levels are then introduced in an agronomic model, which determines the irrigation water quantity and timing for a number of crops. Finally all these elements are included in a farm level economics model, DHYMORA (Viaggi et al., 2010). The model is applied to typical farm specializations in eastern Emilia-Romagna, including both annual and perennial crops.
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Zhao, G., Hoffmann, H., Van Bussel, L., Enders, A., Specka, X., Sosa, C., et al. (2014). Weather data aggregation’s effects on simulation of cropping systems: a model, production system and crop comparison. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Interactions of climate, soil and management practices in cropping systems can be simulated at different scales to provide information for decision making. Low resolution simulation need less effort, but important details could be lost through data aggregation effects (DAEs). This paper aims to provide a general method to assess the DAEs on weather data and the simulation of cropping systems, and further investigate how the DAEs vary with changing crop models, crops, variables and production systems. A 30-year continuous cropping system was simulated for winter wheat and silage maize and potential, water-limited and water-nitrogen-limited production situations. Climate data of 1 km resolution and aggregations to resolutions of 10 to 100 km was used as input for the simulations. The data aggregation narrowed the variation of weather data and DAEs increased with increasingly coarser spatial resolution, causing the loss of hot spots in simulated results. Spatial patterns were similar across different resolutions. Consistent with DAEs on weather data, the DAEs on simulated yield (0 to 1.2 t ha-1 for winter wheat and 0 to 1.7 t ha-1 for silage maize), evapotranspiration (3 to 45 mm yr-1 for winter wheat and 4 to 40 mm yr-1 for silage maize), and water use efficiency (0.02 to 0.25 kg m-3 for winter wheat and 0.04 to 0.4 kg m-3 for silage maize), increased with coarser spatial resolution. Thus, if spatial information is needed for local management decisions, higher resolution is needed to adequately capture the spatial heterogeneity or hot spots in the region.
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Zhao, G., Hoffmann, H., Van Bussel, L. G. J., Enders, A., Specka, X., Sosa, C., et al. (2014). Responses of crop’s water use efficiency to weather data aggregation: a crop model ensemble study. CropM International Symposium and Workshop.
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Zhao, G., Hoffmann, H., Van Bussel, L. G. J., Enders, A., Specka, X., Sosa, C., et al. (2014). Weather data aggregation’s effect on simulation of cropping systems: a model, production system and crop comparison. ESA Congress, 13 Debrecen,.
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Zhen, L., Deng, X., Wei, Y., Jiang, Q., Lin, Y., Helming, K., et al. (2014). Future land use and food security scenarios for the Guyuan district of remote western China. iForest, 7(6), 372–384.
Abstract: Government policy is a major human factor that causes changes in land use. Decisions on land management and land-use planning, as well as the analysis and quantification of policy consequences, may greatly benefit from the simulation of the dynamics of land-use systems. In the present study, we predicted land-use changes and their potential impacts on food security in the environmentally fragile Guyuan District, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (north-central China), under the influence of a program to convert sloping agricultural land to conservation uses. Baseline and conservation policy scenarios (2005 to 2020) were developed based on input from local stakeholders and expert knowledge. For the baseline and conservation policies, we formulated high-, moderate-, and low-growth scenarios, analyzed the driving mechanisms responsible for the land-use dynamics, and then applied a previously developed “dynamics of land systems” model to simulate changes in land uses based on the driving mechanisms. We found that spatially explicit policies can promote the conversion of land to more sustainable uses; however, decreasing the amount of agricultural and urban land and increasing grassland and forest cover will increase the risk of grain shortages, and the effect will be more severe under the conservation and high- growth scenarios than under the baseline and low-growth scenarios. The Guyuan case study suggests that, during the next decade, important trade-offs between environmental conservation and food security will inevitably occur. Future land-use decisions should carefully consider the balance between land resource conservation, agricultural production, and urban expansion.
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