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Siebert, S., & Ewert, F. (2014). Future crop production threatened by extreme heat. Environ. Res. Lett., 9(4).
Abstract: Heat is considered to be a major stress limiting crop growth and yields. While important findings on the impact of heat on crop yield have been made based on experiments in controlled environments, little is known about the effects under field conditions at larger scales. The study of Deryng et al (2014 Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034011), analysing the impact of heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soya bean under climate change, represents an important contribution to this emerging research field. Uncertainties in the occurrence of heat stress under field conditions, plant responses to heat and appropriate adaptation measures still need further investigation.
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Siebert, S., Ewert, F., Rezaei, E. E., Kage, H., & Grass, R. (2014). Impact of heat stress on crop yield-on the importance of considering canopy temperature. Environ. Res. Lett., 9(4).
Abstract: Increasing crop productivity while simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of crop production is considered a major challenge for the coming decades. Even short episodes of heat stress can reduce crop yield considerably causing low resource use efficiency. Studies on the impact of heat stress on crop yields over larger regions generally rely on temperatures measured by standard weather stations at 2 m height. Canopy temperatures measured in this study in field plots of rye were up to 7 degrees C higher than air temperature measured at typical weather station height with the differences in temperatures controlled by soil moisture contents. Relationships between heat stress and grain number derived from controlled environment studies were only confirmed under field conditions when canopy temperature was used to calculate stress thermal time. By using hourly mean temperatures measured by 78 weather stations located across Germany for the period 1994-2009 it is estimated, that mean yield declines in wheat due to heat stress during flowering were 0.7% when temperatures are measured at 2 m height, but yield declines increase to 22% for temperatures measured at the ground. These results suggest that canopy temperature should be simulated or estimated to reduce uncertainty in assessing heat stress impacts on crop yield.
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Sinabel, F., & Brouwer, F. (2014). TradeM theme progress overview. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: TradeM is one theme of MACSUR and the major focus is on enhancing existing economic models and inspiring researchers to further develop and use models and tools. After establishing an inventory of models at the beginning of the project the next stage was used to prepare for the analysis in regional pilot studies. Case studies for three regions in Europe (North, Centre, South) are used to showcase the state of the art of agricultural modelling of climate change and food security in specific regional contexts and policy environments. In parallel efforts stakeholder participation processes are initiated, learning workshops and capacity building. Moreover, steps are to develop and test new concepts on economics for use in integrated assessment approaches dealing with risk and uncertainty.
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Sinabell, F. (2014). Adaptation in Austrian cattle and milk production. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Climate change will pose considerable challenges to Austrian agriculture which will likely be affected by a higher frequency of extreme weather events and more volatile commodity prices. We want to analyse the spatial, economic and social dimension of this threat by exploring expected consequences for the most important agricultural activity in Austria, cattle and dairy farming. We will evaluate a broad bouquet of adaptation measures from both, the perspective of the single farm as well as from the agricultural policy perspective. By aligning scenarios on projections of climate conditions and socio-economic developments with those developed in the EU MACSUR project (www.macsur.eu), the results will be consistent with state of the art analyses on climate change in Europe. By integrating results from a well established life cycle analysis model that will be specified to the Austrian situation we will broaden the spectrum of existing knowledge substantially. The results will allow policy makers to base their decisions on evidence that is not limited to the Austrian situations but includes spillover effects to foreign countries as well. Farmers willbe able to benefit directly from results of this project because stakeholders from the farm sector are part of the analyses from the beginning. An additional benefit of the project is that it is closely integrated to the activities of the international network of researchers working on climate change and food security in Europe.
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Sinabell, F., & Brouwer, F. (2014). TradeM synergies with AGMIP. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The AgMIP network started activities on intercomparison of global economic modelling at a time when MACSUR was not yet established. The achievements made so far are highly relevant for TradeM and several partners (Wageningen University, IIASA, PIK, University Bonn) are in both networks. The MOU between MACSUR and AGMIP established formal links between the two projects and TradeM is activley working on establishing further collaboration. Preparations are underway to bring together researchers of both networks in a joint workshop to be held in Austria, September 2014. The topic will be on issues related to linking local and regional models with global ones. TradeM will actively contribute to the workshop and will host a one-day side-event.
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