Abstract: Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.

Abstract: MACSUR provides an opportunity to connect disparate research groups and disciplines in livestock and grassland modelling.  Within the livestock theme (LiveM) of MACSUR, grassland modelling capabilities have been significantly improved through joint modelling exercises, and grassland modellers have exploited their methodological overlaps with CropM to make important contributions to regional pilot studies.  Animal health researchers have been contributing to the southern regional pilot, and modelling resources have been identified for livestock systems at the animal and farm-scales.  Here, the priorities for the next steps for livestock and grassland modelling are discussed, and for the role of MACSUR in addressing the challenges facing the sector.  While crop and grassland modelling deals with primary production, livestock modelling examines the complexity of secondary production. The unique position of livestock modelling presents challenges and opportunities.  The diversity of livestock models (in scale and approach) makes model inter-comparisons and collaborative work challenging, while the range of variables involved in livestock systems provide many opportunities for increasing systemic efficiency and robustness to the impacts of climate change.  Closer integration of experimental research and modelling teams also has the potential to increase the capability of livestock and grassland models to predict the impact of European adaptation strategies on livestock farming systems, and on the contribution of these systems to global food security.